UK rapeseed outlook: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-25) dropped to a new low yesterday, falling by £2.90/t to close at £177.50/t. The new crop contract (Nov-25) reached a six-week low, ending at £191.70/t, down £2.05/t compared to the previous period.
• Domestic prices followed the downward trend seen in both Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (May-25), which saw declines of 3.0% and 1.0%, respectively. The pressure on wheat prices was mainly due to concerns over the weather in the Northern Hemisphere easing, along with the uncertainty around US import tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-25) were up €6.50/t yesterday, closing at €538.00/t. The Nov-25 contract was also up over the same period, closing at €504.25/t, rising by €3.50/t. This support was despite a fall in Chicago soybean futures (May-25) which fell 0.4%, on the back of improved South American weather and tariff concerns.

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AHDB’s Early Bird Survey (EBS) of planting intentions carried out in November 2024, suggests UK growers have planted the smallest area of rapeseed in 42 years this season. Based on this, and historical yield trends, UK rapeseed production in 2025 could range from 643 Kt to 912 Kt. This suggests we are likely to see a decline from 824 Kt in 2024 (Defra), unless yields are significantly above average.

AHDB's first crop condition report on GB winter crops for the 2025 harvest suggests the rapeseed crop quality is overall looking well. As at 25 November 2024, 73% of winter oilseed rape (WOSR) across Great Britain was rated as good or excellent. That said, challenges like winter weather and pest pressures will continue to be monitored carefully.

UK rapeseed imports are projected by the USDA to reach 875 Kt in the current (2024/25) season, up from 743 Kt (HMRC) last year. The supply outlook in key import origin countries is mixed, with the EU’s output forecast to increase by 13% (Stratégie Grains), while Ukraine’s production is estimated to drop by 14% (LSEG) due to poor weather. This mixed outlook will likely impact availability and as such, price of rapeseed over the coming months the UK.

In terms of demand, rapeseed crushing is expected to slow in the second half of this season due to limited supply, which will result in lower supply of rapeseed oil and meal. According to the USDA, UK OSR demand is expected to fall from 1.95 Mt in 2023/24 to 1.71 Mt in 2024/25. However, crushing demand may pick up later in the year, if EU’s production rises as projected, and more supplies are available on the market.

What does this mean for the UK price outlook?

With the UK facing its smallest planted area in years, rapeseed production in 2025 is expected to remain low, resulting in increased imports to meet domestic demand. Crushing activity is likely to remain slow in the coming months due to reduced supply.

However, while price increases may occur in the short term due to a tighter global supply and demand balance, the longer-term outlook remains uncertain due to expectations of a larger soybean harvest in Brazil. Also, potential US import tariffs on soybeans could impact demand - something to watch closely.

AHDB’s 2025 Planting and Variety Survey opening on 7 April, will provide further insight into the area for harvest.

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