Milk forecasting forum

Updated 8 October 2026

Milk production is a fundamental driver of market dynamics in Great Britain. We hold a milk forecasting forum twice a year, where representatives from across the industry debate, analyse and discuss the key factors influencing production. Here you can find the latest information shared with the group.

The AHDB Milk Forecasting Forum (MFF) met on the 6 October to discuss the factors impacting on future GB milk production. The main points of discussion were focussed around:

• Recent trends in herd size and milk yields. In particular, how increases in input costs may affect milk output. Steep increases in fertiliser and fuel cost and availability remain a concern
• How culling (given high beef price) will influence the herd size and long-term structural changes? How the income from beef (culls and calves) is influencing decision-making?
• Availability of replacement heifers
• Concerns on winter forage stocks influencing breeding decisions and cow numbers
• Impact of BTV3 on dairy herd and milk production including availability and uptake of vaccines in the dairy sector
• Feed market outlook - will bullish costs and extreme weather conditions hold back production?
• Did the extreme heat this summer have long-term impact on fertility, calf growth and in turn milk volumes?
• Persistent uncertainty around global geopolitical factors affecting trade flows
• Impact on input costs following the ongoing Iran war and if this will prompt further slowdown?

We will be updating our production forecast later this month (October 2026). In the meantime, our June forecast update can be found on the website.

Updated 06 July 2026

GB milk production for the 2026/27 season is forecast to decline to 12.91bn litres, 0.9% lower than the previous milk year according to our June forecast update

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