2025 crop UK wheat futures hit three-month high: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-25) ended yesterday at £186.20/t, down £1.75/t from Tuesday’s close. The Nov-25 contract fell £2.50/t over the same period, to close at £197.50/t. The discount of old crop UK feed futures (May-25) under new crop (Nov-25) was £11.30/t in yesterday’s close.
• Domestic wheat futures closed lower yesterday following global grain markets. May-25 Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures were down 1.82% and 1.04% respectively. Recent snow in some US winter wheat areas is easing concerns that low temperatures could damage the crop, and this has put pressure on the market.
• May-25 Paris rapeseed futures closed at €529.25/t yesterday, down €3.75/t from Tuesday’s close. Chicago soyabean futures (May-25) were down 0.69% on yesterday’s close, pressured low export demand. Due to the President's Day holiday the next US Export Sales report will be released on Friday 21 February.

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UK feed wheat futures for the new crop Nov-25 reached a three-month high of £200/t at Tuesday’s close this week. Since December 2024, UK feed wheat futures Nov-25 have followed an upward trend, while May-25 futures from January 2025 have followed a downward trend. Low trade activity in the domestical market puts pressure on the 2024 crop prices. On the other hand, unpredictability, including weather risks for winter crops in the northern hemisphere, supported UK feed wheat futures for the 2025 crop.  As a result of falling UK feed wheat futures May-25 (old crop) and rising futures Nov-25 (new crop) the price difference reached a premium of £12/t  at market close on 18 February. It’s the greatest premium since July 2023, when the Nov-25 futures began trading.

Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures Dec-25 for the 2025 crop closed 18 February higher than the 2024 crop contracts (May-25) at £13/t and £4/t respectively. However, Chicago maize futures closed with a £12/t discount into new crop due to pressure from higher maize plantings in the US. The soyabean/maize price ratio may also encourage more spring planting of US maize.    

Looking ahead

The wheat price for the 2025 crop is now mainly supported by weather risks in the northern hemisphere, so we'll have to pay particular attention to this factor, and for the spring campaign, wheat could look more competitive.

While new crop futures have strengthened over old crop, physical prices don’t fully reflect this. The basis for East Anglia delivered prices for old crop (over May futures), remains stronger than for harvest 2025 (over November futures).   

The USDA's 101st Annual Agriculture Outlook Forum (AOF) will be held on 27–28 February 2025. Traditionally, this forum is used to present the first forecast figures for the US spring crop. This could have a significant impact on prices for the 2025 crop.  

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