AHDB Planting Variety Survey confirms wheat area recovery: Grain market daily

Market Commentary

• UK wheat futures (Nov-21) closed yesterday at £166.10/t, gaining £0.75/t on Tuesday’s close. The May-22 contract also gained £0.75/t to close at £171.85/t.
• Paris wheat futures (Dec-21) closed yesterday at €201.75/t, gaining €1.75/t. In the EU rain in recent weeks has benefitted crops, but there is some cause for concern about quality as the French wheat harvest begins.
• Chicago maize futures (Dec-21) closed yesterday at $209.05/t, down $3.45/t on Tuesday’s close. Forecast wet weather in the U.S. Midwest will be beneficial to maize crops as they are in the yield-determining pollination stage.

AHDB Planting Variety Survey confirms wheat area recovery

Today marks the release of the Planting & Variety Survey. It is the only independent pre-harvest estimate of the area of cereals and oilseed rape intended for harvest in Great Britain.

Improved 2020/21 autumn and winter planting conditions allowed GB grain areas to swing back to trend levels. The area of wheat resurges back in line with the 5-year-average, mainly at the expense of spring. Meanwhile, the oats area grows slightly year-on-year.

The key findings from the survey are:

• GB wheat area is estimated at 1,742Kha, a 26% increase from 2020.
• GB spring barley area is estimated at 769Kha, down 28% from 2020.
• GB winter barley area is estimated at 350Kha, a 15% increase from 2020.
• GB oilseed rape area is estimated at 322Kha, down 15% from 2020.
• GB oat area is estimated at 211Kha, a 1% increase from 2020.
• Skyfall is the most popular wheat variety, with 12% of the total wheat area.
• Laureate is the most popular barley variety, accounting for 26% of the total barley area.

Below is key information about each crop. There is more analysis and information on the AHDB Planting & Variety Survey webpage.

Wheat

Every region within GB for 2021 has a bigger wheat area for this coming harvest. Year-on-year the area is estimated to increase 26%, putting the total GB area at 1,742Kha.

The resurgence in wheat plantings has been at the expense of spring barley, which is down as growers switch back to winter cropping.

In terms of varieties, estimated areas for Group 1 and 2 varieties account for 44% of the 2021 GB wheat area. This is up three percentage points from last year.

Skyfall is once again the most popular variety at 12% of the total wheat area. However, Gleam is only slightly behind at 11% of the total area. 

Barley

The overall GB barley area is recorded at 1,119Kha, a decrease of 18% year-on-year. With wheat prices gaining significantly over the last 12 months growers switched largely back to wheat for harvest 2021. Sowing conditions allowed this switch to happen.

Laureate is the most popular variety and accounts for 26% of the total barley area, while RGT-Planet is second accounting for 20% of the total area.

Oats

The area for oats in GB is estimated at 211Kha, a 1% increase year-on-year. The rise in the area of oats is limited this year after last year’s sizable increase, which has pressured the market.

A significant reduction is estimated in the East Midlands (-22%), as growers in the region managed to sow winter wheat for this year’s harvest.

Oilseed rape

The area for oilseed rape in GB is estimated at 322Kha, down 15% year-on-year. Crop conditions last year for OSR were very challenging and led to significant pest pressure and low yields. This meant growers turned away from planting this break crop.

The most notable area reductions are in the Eastern (-34%) and South East (-22%) regions, equating to an area reduction of 39Kha. These regions are where the cabbage stem flea beetle is most prevalent.

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