Analyst insight: Tighter UK wheat and barley supplies expected in 2026/27

AHDB’s early balance sheets for 2026/27 anticipate a tighter UK supply and demand outlook for both wheat and barley compared to last season.

For wheat, the sharp reduction in stocks over last season drives a fall in supply (Table 1). Opening stocks are 24% lower than 2025/26 and 23% lower than the five-year average.

A slight year-on-year increase in production isn’t enough to offset the fall in opening stocks. AHDB estimates the 2026 UK wheat crop at 12.07 Mt, up 1% on the year but 9% below the five-year average.

Table 1. AHDB early balance sheets for wheat, 2026/27

1. Forecast using best information available as at 22 October 2026
2. Split of exports and total commercial end-season stocks are only published for historical seasons
3. This is a calculated estimate of the minimum tonnage that users of grain require to get from 1 July until the new crop can be utilised; details of the calculation are on AHDB's UK cereal supply and demand homepage
4. Free Stocks are those available after exports and operating stocks have been fulfilled; these will be estimated later in the season when stocks survey data is available
* = not forecast at this point in the season
unch = unchanged.

Source: Defra, AHDB

For barley, the key factor is the fall in production (Table 2).

AHDB estimates the 2026 UK barley crop at 5.50 Mt, down 14% on the year and 21% below the five-year average. This factors sharp falls in spring barley areas in both England and Scotland, and the significant impact of drought on English yields as reported by Defra.

Table 2. AHDB early balance sheets for barley, 2026/27

1. Forecast using best information available as at 22 October 2026
2. Split of exports and total commercial end-season stocks are only published for historical seasons
3. This is a calculated estimate of the minimum tonnage that users of grain require to get from 1 July until the new crop can be utilised; details of the calculation are on AHDB's UK cereal supply and demand homepage
4. Free Stocks are those available after exports and operating stocks have been fulfilled; these will be estimated later in the season when stocks survey data is available
* = not forecast at this point in the season
unch = unchanged.

Source: Defra, AHDB

Meanwhile, demand is forecast 1% lower than last season for both wheat and barley, led by human and industrial uses.

It’s important to note that the operation of the Ensus bioethanol plant is only secured until the end of October 2026. So, these forecasts only factor in wheat usage for bioethanol production until then.

However, use of wheat and barley as animal feed is currently expected to remain high because of the drought this summer. This is an area to monitor as it is forecast to keep imports of feed grains high too.

Our first forecast for UK wheat imports this season is 2.750 Mt. While this is slightly higher than 2025/26’s 2.615 Mt and 20% above the five-year average, the total supply of wheat would still be lower.

Barley imports are also expected to rise from last season’s 213 Kt to 250 Kt in 2026/27 to help reduce the impact of lower domestic production. The five-year average for barley imports is 165 Kt.

But how the price relationships evolve will influence which grains are used for animal feed, and the pace of imports. Both are factors that could change UK wheat and barley supply and demand this season from what’s currently forecast.

At this early stage in the season, there are greater levels of uncertainty in the balance sheet forecast for some aspects than others.

In the outlooks for 2026/27, these are production and imports on the supply side, and animal feed on the demand side.

Here, we explore these aspects to outline some of the key variables to bear in mind when interpreting the forecasts.

The Scottish Government were unable to publish provisional crop estimates this year.

As a result, AHDB consulted with industry to produce initial crop estimates for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. While it was essential to produce these balance sheets, the change in methodology adds extra uncertainty compared to previous seasons.

Defra will release final UK crop estimates on 10 December, which will provide greater certainty on production to feed into the January Balance Sheet.

Following the impact of the severe drought in France on the maize crop, EU maize prices rose, making the grain less attractive to import.

UK maize imports fell month-on-month in August, while wheat imports rose.

With the US maize harvest now advancing, US prices have come under pressure in recent days. Higher freight rates, because of higher fuel costs, also need to be factored in. But if the pressure on global maize prices is sustained, this could make maize imports more attractive again.

Local demand and pricing will also be important.

For example, in years when supplies are higher in Great Britain, more grain moves from GB to Northern Ireland. But in crop years with tighter supplies in GB, more imports from other countries are needed to meet demand in Northern Ireland.

HMRC data shows that most UK barley imports last season, and an increased share of wheat imports, arrived in Northern Ireland. This reflects tighter GB supplies last season.

Changes in the competitiveness of different grains across GB and Northern Ireland will influence total UK imports and which grain is imported.

Forage stocks ran low or even emptied for many farms last winter. Further, the drought this year has cut grass growth in many areas, as shown by AHDB’s Forage for Knowledge. This has limited the ability to refill those stocks and meant some forage needed to be fed early.

Grain directly or in compound feed will be needed to replace forage during the winter, with winter weather set to influence the amounts needed.

From a demand perspective, AHDB’s latest outlooks for the livestock sectors show many farm businesses continue to face considerable pressure. This, in turn, could limit rises in the total demand for grain as animal feed this season.

On Thursday 26 November, AHDB will release the first official estimates of supply and demand for all UK cereals on behalf of Defra.

Sign up to receive the latest analysis and more from AHDB.

Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB.

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.