Arable Market Report – 05 May 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

In a change from last week’s report, this section now focuses on the Nov-26 prices. The May-26 contract is in its final month of trade and in a contract’s final weeks the relationship with physical prices often weakens.

Support continues for the global market, which is filtering into the UK domestic market.  Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures ended the week up £3.55/t at £187.60/t (Figure 1).

Last week, there were continued gains in global grain markets partly due to stronger crude oil prices as the conflict continues in the Middle East. Weather risk premiums are also continuing to be built into the market as Northern Hemisphere crops are in focus.

Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-26) gained 3.7% and 2.5% across the week. The domestic market was closed yesterday but both Chicago and Paris wheat markets were supported.

Broader commodity gains continue to be driven by volatile and rising crude oil prices, amid escalating US-Iran tensions around the Strait of Hormuz with Project Freedom disrupting shipping. This is increasing freight, insurance, and input-cost risks, while keeping the market cautious about supply-chain reliability, as markets remain cautious over whether the plan to end the effective blockade can succeed.

US drought concerns continue to be a bullish market driver. Dry conditions and heat are stressing winter wheat in key states such as Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, raising yield and quality risks for the crop.

The latest USDA crop condition scores (to 3 May) showed 31% of US winter wheat in good or excellent condition, up from 30% the week prior. However, 37% of the crop was rated very poor or poor, up from 35% a week ago. This is the worst rated (very poor or poor) US winter wheat crop for this point in the season since 2022.

This week, the market will focus on the potential for much-needed rainfall across Europe and parts of the US Midwest and Plains. This could ease drought stress, although some damage to US wheat may already be irreversible. US maize planting is running ahead of average, but drought conditions are likely to keep a weather risk premium in the market.

Meanwhile, ongoing Middle East tensions will continue to support grain prices through higher freight, insurance, and broader commodity volatility.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Delivered wheat prices followed the weekly upward movement of UK feed wheat futures.

Delivered feed wheat into Avonmouth (May-26) was quoted at £192.00/t, gaining £3.50/t, across the week (Thursday–Thursday). Meanwhile, feed wheat into East Anglia (May-26) was quoted at £190.50/t up £5.50/t over the same period.

Feed barley into East Anglia (May-26) was quoted at £158.50/t, down £0.50/t across the week, and at a £32.00/t discount to feed wheat. Just last week that discount in East Anglia was £26.00/t.

Bread wheat into the Northwest (Jul-26) was quoted at £217.50/t, with no comparison on the week available.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

n/c = no comparison available

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

The Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 contract increased by 3.1% in £/t from Friday to Thursday. Euronext futures trading was closed on Friday due to a national holiday in France. The increase in £/t was lower than that in €/t due to a stronger sterling against the euro. 

After breaking through the recent resistance level of £440/t last week, the next resistance level for the contract is £460/t. This new level is close to the nearest resistance level of €533/t for Paris rapeseed futures when converted into sterling. The nearest support level is the 20-day rolling average (Figure 2).

The relative strength index (RSI) decreased modestly from 57 to 56 Friday to Thursday.

Geopolitical concerns are still influencing the prices of crude oil, fertilisers, fuel, vegetable oils and the oilseeds complex in general. Uncertainty over the cease-fire in the Middle East has risen and the transporting of energy commodities through the Strait of Hormuz is still disrupted. 

Nearby Brent crude oil futures rose by 9.1% last week, reaching $108.17/barrel. The price rose again up to $114.44/barrel yesterday. 

Supported by the crude oil price rally, Dec-26 Chicago soya bean oil futures increased by 6.2% over the week (Friday–Friday). Nov-26 Chicago soyabean futures Nov-26 increased by 2.3% over the same period. 

US net export sales of soyabeans for 2025/26 totalled 258.1 Kt for the week ending 23 April, which was lower than the previous week and at the lower end of analysts' estimates. The market is also still waiting for clarification on the potential meeting between the USA and China. 

Yesterday's USDA Crop Progress report showed that, as of 3 May, 33% of the US soya bean area had been planted, compared to an average of 23% over the past five years for this period. This offers confidence about the cropped area and could exert pressure in the medium term, but this will depend on crop conditions in the coming months. 

The Nov-26 Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola futures contracts ended last week up 3.4% and 2.8% respectively. Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-26) increased by 1.2% yesterday to €529.50/t.

According to the latest update by the European crop monitor MARS, the average EU-27 rapeseed yield in 2026 could reach 3.25 t/ha. This is an increase of 1% compared to both the previous month's estimate and the five-year average. However, concerns are emerging over a potential water deficit in Central, Northern and Eastern Europe.

The EU Commission increased its forecast of EU-27 rapeseed 2026/27 production to 20.8 Mt, up from 19.9 Mt previously, and up from 20.2 Mt in 2025/26. Adding further to supplies, the 2026/27 season EU-27 rapeseed import projection is 5.9 Mt, up from 5.5 Mt in 2025/26.

Indonesia's crude palm oil production this year could drop by 4% compared to 2025, according to the palm oil producer association GAPKI. This is due to EI Niño-related dry weather and high fertiliser prices driven by the war in the Middle East (LSEG).

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith (Hvst-26) was reported at £454.50/t in Friday’s survey, up £6.00/t from the previous week. The price for November delivery also gained £6.00/t, to £464.50/t. For February 2027 delivery, the price was £468.50/t, with no comparison on the week available.

Due to the national holiday in France last Friday, the Paris futures trading was closed. This is why the delivered market last Friday focused on Thursday’s close.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

On Friday we published an AHDB crop development update for harvest 2026. Our latest crop development report estimates that by 27 April 2026, 75% of winter wheat crops are in a good or excellent condition, down from 82% in late March. Meanwhile, it shows that 70% of winter barley crops are in a good or excellent condition, down from 85% in late March.

On Thursday 7 May, we will publish UK cereal usage data for March, covering human and industrial consumption, as well as GB animal feed production.

Also on Thursday 7 May, we will release estimates for cereal stocks held by merchants, ports and co-ops (MPC) in the UK at the end of February. Plus, Defra will release data on cereal stocks held on-farm in England and Wales at the end of February.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

unch: no change in price compared to last week

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