Comfortable global supply keeps pressure on prices: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-26) fell by £0.90/t yesterday to close at £170.35/t, setting a new contract low. Domestic prices tracked global markets lower, with Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (May-26) also easing, as expectations of ample supply continue to weigh on sentiment.
• The USDA’s December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report added further pressure. The report estimated global wheat production for 2025/26 at 837.8 Mt. This is up 1.1% (8.9 Mt) from last month, driven by higher output in Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU. The report also increased global wheat stocks by 1.3% from last month now estimated at 274.9Mt, the highest since 2021/22.
• Meanwhile, Coceral’s early outlook suggests EU-27 + UK wheat production could ease to 143.9 Mt for 2026, down from a bumper 147.5 Mt this year. Barley output is forecast to fall to 58.2 Mt from 63.2 Mt this year, while rapeseed volumes are expected to remain stable at 21.8 Mt.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-26) dropped €5.50/t to close at €466.25/t yesterday. Chicago soyabean futures (May-26) also fell 0.7%, pressured by concerns over the strength of Chinese demand for US soyabeans and expectations of large South American harvests.
• Meanwhile, Argentina’s economy minister announced cuts to export taxes on wheat, barley and soyabeans, a move that could make its exports even more competitive in the global market.

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