European futures pressured by Black sea exports: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-26) lost £0.10/t (0.1%) from Fridays close, settling at £178.55/t on Monday
• Domestic futures moved in line with European futures which were pressured by export competition from the black sea region. Paris milling wheat (Dec-25) closed at €190.75/t down €0.75/t (0.4%)
• A Reuters poll of nine analysts estimates the US maize harvest at 92% complete, slightly behind last years pace reported by the USDA of 95% complete. There are suggestions that the US maize crop estimated by the USDA in September (16.8 Mt), may not be as large, with analysts currently estimating a crop size of around 16.6 Mt (LSEG). The USDA is due to publish its official supply and demand estimates on 14 November
• As at 11 November, Ukrainian farmers have planted 6.2 Mha (95%) of its expected winter crop area, with 4.5 Mha of wheat so far. The Ukrainian economy ministry expects the winter grain sowing area to expand to 5.4 Mha for 2026 from 5.2 Mha in 2025
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-26) closed at €478.25/t yesterday, up €0.75/t (0.2%) from Friday's close
• Chicago soya bean futures (May-26) lost (0.1%) yesterday. There are positive signs for US soya bean exporters, with the record long US government shutdown likely coming to an end, as well as a possible restoration in Chinese demand
• Canada’s and China’s relations look to be improving after a weeklong trip by the Canada’s agricultural minister. China had been Canada’s largest export market for canola (rapeseed) until China imposed anti-dumping tariffs in 2024

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