GB barley area hits 16-year low as growers rethink cropping strategies

Our latest Planting and Variety Survey, the first post-planting estimates of GB cropped areas for harvest 2026, reveals a marked change in the balance of crops planted across the UK in 2026, with the GB barley area falling to its lowest level since 2010, while oilseed rape rebounds and wheat is slightly higher.

The survey shows that growers are responding to a very challenging mix of market pressures, changing demand and rising costs.

Planting decisions have also been influenced by good autumn planting conditions and a disappointing spring in 2025.

The total barley area is estimated at 930 Kha, down 12% to its lowest level since 2010 and 17% below the five-year (2021- 2025) average. The decline is driven primarily by a reduction in spring barley, with smaller falls in winter barley.

In Scotland, barley area has fallen 13% to 258 Kha, its lowest level since the 1960s.

At the same time, the share of barley varieties suitable for malting, brewing and distilling has declined to 62%, reducing the potential availability of malting-quality grain.

These shifts come as the brewing, malting and distilling (BMD) sector faces ongoing pressures, with UK barley usage forecast in 2025/26 to be the lowest on record since 1990/91.

GB wheat area has increased 3% to 1,711 Kha. This is 1% above the five-year average and close to 2023 levels, although trends vary regionally. There are strong gains in the South East (+12%), South West (+7%) and East Midlands (+7%), while some northern regions have seen declines, likely linked to uncertainty around bioethanol demand.

Scotland has recorded a sizeable increase, with wheat area reaching 116 Kha, the largest since 1992.

Varietal trends show a move towards higher specification wheats:

• Group 1 varieties now represent 23% of the GB area (up four percentage points)
• Group 3 varieties have risen to 12%, their highest share since 2014
• Group 4 varieties have declined to 44%

While this could support milling wheat availability, yield and quality outcomes remain uncertain, particularly given dry spring conditions and higher input costs.

Oilseed rape (OSR) area has risen 49% year-on-year to 358 Kha, supported by improved returns in 2025 and a more favourable margin outlook compared with cereals.

However, the increase comes from a historically low base and remains below 2023 levels. Pest pressure and variable results in recent seasons continue to weigh on grower confidence.

The survey also reports a contraction in other spring crops. UK oat area falls 15% to 168 Kha, the lowest since 2023.

Overall, declines in barley and oats outweigh gains in wheat, resulting in the total GB cereals area down 4% to 2,807 Kha, the lowest since 2006. However, when combined with oilseeds, the total cropped area is marginally higher year-on-year, driven by the rebound in OSR.

The findings underline how growers are adjusting rotations in response to:

• Lower cereal prices and reduced premiums
• Rising input costs
• Changing demand, particularly for malting barley
• Weather-driven planting opportunities
• Evolving agri-environment schemes and policy changes

Helen Plant, AHDB Lead Analyst, Cereals & Oilseeds, said:

“This year’s survey shows just how quickly cropping decisions are responding to sustained pressure on farm margins and changes in demand.

“The sharp reduction in barley area reflects the combined impact of weaker prices, lower premiums and lower demand from the malting, brewing and distilling sectors.

“At the same time, the recovery in oilseed rape and modest increase in wheat shows that growers are actively reassessing their rotations to manage risk and remain profitable where possible.

“Planted area is only part of the picture. Final supply will depend heavily on yields, crop quality, particularly for bioethanol and malting barley. This, plus how demand develops through the season, will also influence prices.”