Prices fall on a more bearish WASDE: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures retreated yesterday, with the Nov-22 contract settling at £276.70/t, down £10.45/t from Monday’s close.
• UK markets followed the downward move of US markets, following a more bearish WASDE report – read more below.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-22) closed at €678.75/t on Tuesday, down by €21.25/t from Monday.

Global grain and oilseed markets retreated yesterday, following the publication of the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). The latest report gave a more bearish outlook for global grain supply and demand for 2022/23 than the June estimates and in some cases than pre report expectations.

Wheat

Drier than usual weather conditions across the EU and Argentina, alongside the conflict in Ukraine, prompted the USDA to lower its latest wheat output projections in those countries by a total of 4.5Mt for 2022/23. However, this was partly offset by upward revisions to US (+1.2Mt), Canadian (+1.0Mt) and Russian (+0.5Mt) wheat production on the back of higher yields and harvest area. Initial market expectations were for a more modest US output increase, of circa 230Kt, to 47.5Mt, according to a Refinitiv pre-report poll.

Despite a cut to global wheat production, a projected rise in carry in stocks and a fall in domestic feed usage has led to an uptick in end-season stocks. 2022/23 world wheat end-season stocks are now pegged at 267.52Mt, up from 266.85Mt in June.

Maize

Chicago maize futures (Dec-22) hit a one-week low yesterday amid WASDE projections for higher global ending stocks as a result of larger carry in stocks and lower demand.

Global maize ending stocks are now projected at 312.94Mt up from 310.45Mt forecast in June. Maize consumption is forecast down by 1.04Mt, while 2022/23 opening stocks have been revised up by 1.36Mt.

Soyabeans

Soyabean markets were pressured yesterday by weaker import projections from China (-1.0Mt) in the WASDE. However, overall losses where capped by trimmed global output projections (-4.0Mt) on June estimates, to 395.37Mt for 2022/23

China is now expected to draw down more of its domestic soyabean inventories than import as high volumes, which will likely add pressure to global markets. The country this week released 500Kt of product from inventories to sell on the domestic market.

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