Record-high imported and low home-grown wheat stocks: Grain Market Daily

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) closed up £0.60/t (0.4%) at £167.15/t yesterday. The May-26 contract was unchanged yesterday, closing at £178.30/t.
• UK feed wheat futures increased yesterday, while Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures finished with mixed results. Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) decreased by 0.3%, while Chicago wheat futures (Dec-25) gained 1.3%. Chicago wheat futures were partly supported by a weaker US dollar, while Paris milling wheat futures were under pressure from rising expectations for the Russian harvest.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) decreased by €0.75/t (0.2%) to close at €472.00/t. Winnipeg canola and Chicago soyabean futures (Nov-25) gained yesterday, by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.

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Stocks of wheat held by merchants, ports and co-operatives in the UK at the end of June 2025, plus on-farm in England and Wales were 35% lower than a year earlier and 12% lower than the five-year average.

Wheat

Defra estimates that 651 Kt of home-grown wheat was held on farms in England and Wales at the end of June 2025. This is down 44% from last year 1.166 Mt, and 18% below the five-year average. Over the past ten years the on-farm stocks of own grown wheat in England and Wales ranged from a low of 403 kt in 2021 to a high of 1.278 Mt in 2016. This means that the level of stocks at the end of June 2025 was close to the lowest level in the last ten years. This data can be found on Defra’s website.

AHDB reported this morning that merchants, ports and co-operatives (MPC) in the UK held 39% less home-grown wheat at the end of June 2025 than a year earlier, at 494 Kt. On the other hand, they held record 303 Kt of imported wheat stocks, 21% more than June 2024.

Total end-season stocks for the 2024/25 season will be published in the final 2024/25 balance sheets in mid-September and will incorporate the data from the UK MPC and Defra England and Wales on-farm stocks surveys, as well as stocks held by processors in the UK and farmers in Scotland and Northern Ireland. In the May UK cereals supply and demand estimates, total end-season wheat stocks for 2024/25 were estimated at 2.94 Mt, down 2% from the previous season.

Barley and oats

Merchants, ports and co-operatives in the UK held 21% more home-grown barley at the end of June 2025 and 70% more oats, compared June 2024.

Defra estimates that, compared to the previous season, on-farm stocks of home-grown barley in England and Wales were 7% lower at the end of June 2025, standing at 135 Kt. While on-farm stocks of home-grown oats increased significantly from 16 Kt at the end of June 2024 to 51 Kt at the end of June 2025.    

Looking ahead

A lower level of wheat ending stocks could theoretically support the domestic price in the 2025/26 season. However, the influence of the global market on the domestic wheat futures price is significant, and we are currently experiencing a downward price trend.

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