UK futures lift amid Black Sea risk: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures rose yesterday, except for the Jan-26 price, supported by concerns over the war in Ukraine and a rise in crude oil prices. May-26 futures gained £1.20/t to settle at £171.20/t, while the Nov-26 contract gained £1.75/t to close at £174.20/t. Meanwhile, the Jan-26 contract fell due to technical factors ahead of its expiry next month.
• Yesterday, the market focused on the recent airstrikes against Ukrainian ports and the risk of disruption to trade, with some traders reportedly repositioning ahead of the Christmas period. This, alongside the situation between the US and Venezuela, helped crude oil prices recover some lost ground after the near five-year low reached early last week. Brent nearby futures closed at $62.07/barrel yesterday, up $1.60/barrel from Friday and its highest close since 9 December. High global supplies limited grain price gains.
• The uplift in crude oil prices also helped oilseed prices to rise, though like grains, the gains were limited by optimism over global supplies. Winnipeg canola futures reported the largest gains, though there was also wider support for oilseed and vegetable oil prices. May-26 Paris rapeseed futures closed at €452.25/t, up €2.00/t while the Nov-26 contract €447.00/t, up €2.50/t.
• Exchange rates continue to be a double-edged sword for domestic prices, with a weaker US dollar supporting Chicago futures prices, which in turn offers support to UK prices. However, the often corresponding rise in sterling (and to a lesser extent the euro impacting Paris futures) can limit or offset any gains in domestic prices. Yesterday £1 = US$1.3462, up from US$1.3375 on Friday and its highest level since 6 October (LSEG).
• This is our final market update of 2025; our next report will be the AHDB Grain and oilseed weekly market report on Monday 5 January 2026. So, we would like to take the chance to wish you a very happy Christmas and a prosperous 2026.

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