UK harvest reviewed as US stock reports pushes global wheat higher: Grain market daily

• Wheat markets continued their recent sharp gains as cuts to US production and lower than expected US stocks kept the upwards momentum going. UK ICE feed wheat futures for Nov-21 closed at £200.60/t, a gain of £3.35/t on the previous close. Nov-22 futures closed at £185.45/t, which was a £3.15/t increase on the day.
• Global markets remain in a bullish sentiment driven by tight stocks pictures; increases in other global commodity markets and the general ‘squeeze’ on supply chains being felt around the world.
• To temper the good news if you are a seller of grain (or bad news if you are a buyer), fertiliser values in international futures markets keep pushing higher. Dec-21 FOB US Gulf Urea futures priced at $665/ton yesterday, this would be a $209/ton gain through the month of September alone.
• With much of the world focusing on South America to supply grain demand in early 2022, Argentine farmers have started planting maize and have 16.8% of the expected 7.1Mha planted for this season. The outlook for South America and possible impact of La Niña will be a key element of our upcoming Grain Market Outlook conference. To watch a livestream of our event, sign-up here.

As the harvest now ends around the UK, we have our final harvest report to round up yields and quality.

For wheat, in our final report yields are forecast close to average at 8.0-8.2t/ha. However, the real issue in the UK lies in variable quality. Specific weights are reported generally lower than normal in the 72-76kg/hl range, whilst protein levels are in a wide range from 10.5%-13.5%.

The average yield over the past five years was 8.0t/ha. However, this includes the 2020 yield of 7.0t/ha, which was the lowest since 2012. If we look at the average yield for 2015 -2019, it was higher at 8.4t/ha.*

Given this yield range and the area forecasts we can see a wheat production level just in the range of 14.4-15.0Mt. The provisional Defra production figure for the UK will be released Monday October 11^th and discussed at our Grain Market Outlook Conference.

Spring barley harvest is virtually complete with only a handful of fields left in Northern England and Scotland. Farm yields range from 5-10t/ha. Scottish quality has held well with grain nitrogen averaging 1.4% and specific weights of around 62kg/hl. Most Scottish crops were harvested at relatively low moisture levels through September, which may aid cost of drying on-farm given the high energy prices we see.

For oats, spring crop harvest is now largely complete, with yields ranging from 4.4-8.5t/ha on farm. Oats have been going through dryers to clean samples and specific weights have seen a good-sized range from 42-62kg/hl.

With domestic harvests now practically over, attention inevitably turns towards prices and planting. With new-crop values at such historic high-levels for this time of year and old-crop markets well supported and in no mood to fall, it could be argued that time is best spent on making marketing plans for the 2022 harvest, despite 2021’s combines only just being put back in the shed.

US wheat makes gains but maize and soy fall

The USDA Quarterly Stocks report, released yesterday, pushed wheat markets higher as stocks came in below expectations and cuts were made to wheat production in the US.

Wheat stocks at 1^st September are estimated at 48.43Mt far below expectations prior to the report; Dow Jones survey had expected 50.54Mt. US wheat production was cut 1.36Mt to 44.76Mt, which again was a minor surprise to markets.

While wheat made gains, the stocks report was bearish news for maize and soybeans. Both stocks estimates were above trade expectations at 31.41Mt (expected 29.71Mt) and 6.97Mt (expected 4.68Mt) respectively.

Ultimately this will cause a short blip in trade, but is not enough of a shock to change the overall sentiment of the global markets.

* additional information added for clarity, production range adjusted accordingly (04/10/2021).

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