Larger Russian wheat crop estimates add market pressure: Grain market daily

Thursday, 11 September 2025

Market commentary

  • UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) closed at £165.95/t yesterday, up £0.10/t from Tuesday’s close, while the May-26 contract fell by £0.40/t to £176.45/t
  • Wheat markets remain under pressure due to strong global supply outlooks, weak demand and market repositioning ahead of tomorrow’s USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Dec-25 Chicago wheat futures dropped by 1.0%, while Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) held steady at its contract low
  • Russian 2025 wheat production estimates have been revised upwards, with IKAR now estimating the crop at 87.0 Mt (up from 86.0 Mt). Meanwhile, SovEcon increased its estimate to 87.2 Mt, up from 86.1 Mt
  • Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures closed at €467.75/t yesterday, gaining €3.25/t on the previous day. The contract was supported by strength across the wider vegetable oil complex, with Winnipeg canola and Chicago soyabean oil futures (Nov-25) rising by 1.4% and 1.0% respectively
Image of staff member Gabriel Odiase

Gabriel Odiase

Analyst (Cereals & Oilseeds)

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