UK exports activity: Monthly headlines from AHDB

February 2025's round-up of AHDB's export activity and international market news.

France

Economic situation in France

February 2025 in France showcases a dynamic economic environment where the agricultural sector faces significant challenges, prompting mobilisations and calls for policy interventions. Simultaneously, large-scale retailers are adapting strategies to navigate a competitive market, with evolving consumer preferences influencing both sectors.

France's economic landscape reflected a complex interplay between the agricultural sector and large-scale retail chains (GMS). The agricultural community is facing challenges such as disease outbreaks, including the spread of bluetongue disease (FCO) and epizootic haemorrhagic disease (MHE), which have significantly impacted livestock health and farmer morale. Additionally, climatic adversities have affected crop yields, exacerbating the difficulties faced by farmers. The suspension of the agricultural orientation bill, due to the dissolution of the National Assembly, has further contributed to the uncertainty within the sector.

In response to these challenges, the National Federation of Agricultural Holders' Unions (FNSEA) and Young Farmers (JA) have initiated mobilisations since November 2024. They protest against trade agreements like the EU-Mercosur deal, which they see as detrimental to European agriculture. These protests have included gatherings at prefectures and strategic points, with the potential for extended demonstrations if their concerns remain unaddressed. We’ll see how this goes during the Agriculture Show in Paris, SIA, which is traditionally the time and place for farmer’s discontent to show.

Concurrently, the large-scale retail sector is undergoing significant transformations. Carrefour, one of Europe's leading food retailers, has announced plans to continue price reductions throughout 2025 to attract price-sensitive consumers amidst high inflation. Despite reporting a 5.5% increase in operating profit in France for 2024, Carrefour remains cautious about consumer demand in 2025 due to a competitive market and ongoing economic challenges.

However, Carrefour's shares experienced a 7% decline following a disappointing 2025 outlook and fourth-quarter results. The retailer reported a fall in comparable sales in France and warned of only slight growth in free cash flow and EBIT for 2025. This decline is partly attributed to Carrefour's aggressive price-cutting strategy aimed at remaining competitive against rivals like Leclerc.

Sheep meat market (France) – source: FRANCE AGRIMER

Slaughter and live trade

  • From January to April 2024, lamb slaughter numbers declined by 3.2%. While slaughter increased in March ahead of Easter, it dropped sharply in April (-23.1%)
  • Cull ewe slaughter fell more significantly, down 14.4% compared to the first four months of 2023
  • Live lamb imports rose 10.2% year-on-year in 2024, while exports surged 25.8%
  • Trade with Spain was particularly strong, with a 10.2% rise in imports (+1,700 head)

Consumption and imports

  • French lamb prices remained high post-Easter, avoiding the usual seasonal decline
  • In March 2024, estimated consumption increased by 2.2%, while household purchases spiked by 30.1%, driven by Easter demand
  • Sheep meat imports dropped 8.5% year-on-year, totalling 12,340 tonnes equivalent carcase (tec) in March
    • 53.4% came from the UK, 16.6% from New Zealand, 13.0% from Ireland, and 11.4% from Spain
  • Post-Brexit, French imports from the UK fell by 18.1%, while shipments from Spain (+56.7%) and New Zealand (+25.6%) rose

Prices and market outlook

  • In week 20 (ending May 19), lamb carcase prices reached €9.63/kg, up €1.34 year-on-year
  • Despite the end of Easter and Ramadan, prices remained strong due to tight supply
  • Prices are expected to stay high until June, driven by demand for Eid al-Adha

Beef sector - source: FRANCE AGRIMER

Consumption and trade

  • In 2024, beef consumption declined by 3.4% compared to 2023
  • Imports fell by 7%, while exports grew by 3.3%, driven by increased demand from Mediterranean markets

Live cattle

  • Cows: Slaughter numbers decreased by 4.3% (weeks 1720 of 2024), mainly due to a drop in suckler cows (-7.3%) and dairy cows (-3.4%). Prices remained firm (+3 to +10 cts/kg).
  • Young bulls: Slaughter numbers rose by 2.8%, with mixed trends:
    • Suckler breeds: +4.4%
    • Dairy and mixed breeds: -2.8% and -9.0%
    • Prices slightly declined (-6 cts for JB U standard)
  • Weanlings: Exports dropped by 8.9%, with lower shipments to Spain (-5.2%) and Italy (-8.6%)

Beef meat

  • Exports remained stable in 2024 (+0.1%), with a 116.6% increase in third-country demand (notably Turkey and Algeria)
  • Imports fell by 8.8%, mainly from Ireland, Germany, and the Netherlands
  • Consumption declined by 3.7% in 2024. The average beef price rose 2.7%, while household consumption dropped 4.4%

Trends and outlook

  • Cows: Limited supply supports price levels
  • Young bulls and veal calves: Seasonal price declines continue
  • Dairy calves: Insufficient supply for fattening keeps prices high
  • Weanlings: Tight supply sustains price increases

What agri-food industry does France want for 2040, and how can it get there?

As France's agri-food sector loses competitiveness, a CGAER report raises concerns that without political action, the situation will continue to decline, impacting French agriculture.

A fragile sector facing major challenges

French agri-food industries are vulnerable and must react to challenges such as securing supply chains, international competition, innovation, decarbonisation, and water access. The General Council for Food, Agriculture, and Rural Areas (CGAER) has outlined four possible scenarios for the sector by 2040, along with key measures to implement.

Defensive or offensive strategy?

The sector, made up of 98% SMEs, struggles structurally, with lower cash flow than the European average. Margins have been declining for a decade. To regain competitiveness, companies must invest in industrial tools and innovation.

A pessimistic baseline scenario

If current trends in consumption and the economy continue, the outlook for 2040 is bleak. Purchasing power constraints prevent organic and quality-certified products from expanding beyond their 2023 levels. French agri-food businesses, the national trade balance, and the upstream agricultural sector all suffer.

To avoid this, CGAER proposes three alternative scenarios :

  1. A defensive scenario: Preserving French agri-food
    • Small food businesses fail due to a lack of investment
    • Larger players emerge, sourcing more from the EU (including Ukraine, which joins in 2035)
    • Consumers, seeking low prices, favour private-label products
    • Farms must either focus on high-end, eco-friendly niche production or shift to renewable energy production
  2. A recovery scenario: Restoring purchasing power
    • With strong political will, household budgets improve, aligning purchases with social concerns
    • Supermarkets maintain market share while local and short supply chains grow
    • Two major trends emerge: plant-based alternatives and ultra-convenience products
    • French-origin products remain premium but expand their market share
    • Government support allows businesses to innovate, boosting exports
  3. A disruptive scenario: Growing inequality
    • Wealthy households can afford premium food
    • Others, including hospitals, nursing homes, students, and low-income school canteens, rely on “novel food”—low-cost, nutritionally calibrated products from the expanded EU or large French farms
    • Mid-sized farms specialise in high-end products

What policies should be implemented?

The report clarifies strategic choices to avoid contradictions in agri-food policies.

Essential measures for all scenarios

Some actions are necessary regardless of the scenario:

  • Supporting companies in reducing water and energy consumption
  • Addressing labour shortages
  • Securing agri-food supply chains within trade agreements

At least a dozen measures are needed to prevent rapid decline

Encouraging local and regional synergies

CGAER highlights the importance of collaboration between companies at the local and regional levels, including operational and financial partnerships.

Strengthening SMEs and mid-sized companies (ETIs)

France lacks a dedicated policy for food industry SMEs and mid-sized businesses, and much remains to be done at both national and regional levels.

One key recommendation is adapting financing tools, such as:

  • Zero-interest loans for investments over five years
  • Other mechanisms to support productive investments and cash flow

Modernising agriculture to strengthen the supply chain

To maintain a strong agri-food sector, modernizing agriculture is crucial. The report suggests:

  • Strengthening industry-wide plans
  • Expanding sovereignty strategies to less visible areas, such as ingredients and aquaculture

France’s agri-food future will depend on investment, innovation, and strategic policy choices to navigate challenges and maintain competitiveness.

SIA Paris show

The Salon International de l'Agriculture 2025 took place from February 22 to March 2, 2025, at Paris Expo Porte de Versailles. This 61st edition highlights Morocco as the first invited foreign country, with a delegation of around 100 political representatives and entrepreneurs.

Among the key events, the Interregional Butchery Competition is organised by the French Confederation of Butchers, Charcutiers, and Caterers (CFBCT). This year’s theme is “Our Confederation is 130 Years Old”, and the competition brings together regional teams consisting of a butcher, a young professional under 25, and an apprentice in training, among which is always a woman.

The "Changeons d’Agneau" (Let's Change Lamb) award is presented by Patrick Soury, Director of INTERBEV Ovin. This campaign aims to promote lamb consumption in France. AHDB is actively participating in northern France, advising butchers on cutting techniques, lamb presentation, and carcase balance.

Find out more about the salon and its events

Video : Young Butchers Competition 2025 at the Salon de l'Agriculture

Food waste: What does the new European agreement say?

A new agreement has been reached between the European Parliament and the Council on revising the Waste Framework Directive, setting reduction targets for food waste by 2030.

Key targets and measures

On February 18, the European Parliament and the Council agreed on updated food waste reduction goals. The new directive aims to cut food waste by:

  • 10% in food processing and manufacturing
  • 30% in retail, food services, and households

These targets will be measured against the average annual waste levels from 2021 to 2023.

Study on food waste

By December 31, 2027, the European Commission will conduct a study on food loss and waste in primary production. Based on the findings, it may revise the reduction targets. The Commission will support EU member states by sharing best practices through the EU Platform on Food Losses and Waste.

Current food waste in the EU

The EU generates 59 million tonnes of food waste annually, leading to 252 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions. On average, 10% of food is wasted daily, causing a €132 billion loss per year across the food supply chain. Additionally, waste collection and treatment costs amount to €9.3 billion.

Next steps

The agreement still requires approval from the European Parliament and the Council of the EU before becoming law. Once adopted, member states will have 20 months to update their national regulations.

Germany

Further progress in the fight against foot-and-mouth disease

In the fight against the spread of foot-and-mouth disease in Brandenburg, the EU Commission has issued an implementing decision setting out the next steps with regard to the animal health exclusion zones.

The decision was made possible because animal disease control measures were implemented quickly, and there was no further spread of the disease. The 3-kilometer protection zone will be lifted with immediate effect and integrated into the surveillance zone. This will remain in effect until 24 February. After that, the surveillance measures will apply in a smaller zone until 11 April.

After decline: More meat from German production

For the first time since the peak in 2016, slaughterhouses in Germany have produced more meat than a year before. At 6.9 million tonnes, meat production in 2024 exceeded the previous year's volume by 1.4%, as calculated by the Federal Statistical Office based on preliminary figures.

This means that domestic meat production rose again for the first time after seven years of declining quantities but remained almost a fifth below the previous high of 8.4 million tonnes in 2016.

In total, 48.7 million pigs, cattle, sheep, goats and horses and 693.3 million chickens, turkeys and ducks were slaughtered in domestic slaughterhouses last year. The number of pigs slaughtered rose significantly, increasing by 1.2% year-on-year to 44.6 million animals. In total, German slaughterhouses produced around 4.3 million tonnes of pork, 1.9% more than in 2023. The number of cattle slaughtered commercially in 2024 remained almost unchanged compared to the previous year at 3.0 million animals. Nevertheless, the slaughter volume increased by 1.2% to 1.0 million tonnes of beef because the slaughtered animals were heavier on average. 

Business development of German butcher shops

Consolidation is also progressing in the butcher trade. However, the master businesses are successfully bucking the downward trend of recent years, even though the number of companies has slipped below the 10,000 mark for the first time. 

Based on an evaluation by the Food and Hospitality Industry Accident Insurance Association (BGN), the German Butchers' Association (DFV) counts a total of 9,872 butcher's businesses for 2024. Compared to the previous year's survey, this represents a decrease of 299 businesses or a decrease of 2.94% (2023: -4.46%). 

The number of branches in the butcher's trade decreased by 274 to 5,937. This corresponds to a decrease of around 4.4% compared to the same period in 2023. 218/5.000. This gives butchers a market presence of 20,809 sales outlets. For comparison, the Aldi Group and the discounters Lidl, Netto, Penny and Norma have a total of 15,234 locations, according to Statista. 

Danish Crown is stopping the production of self-service meat in Germany

As Danish Crown announced, the production of self-service meat in Germany will stop by the end of February 2025. Production mainly took place in the convenience departments at the Oldenburg site and in a sub-area at the Essen (Oldenburg) site, where various convenience products such as minced meat, schnitzel, barbecue torches, etc. were produced for the German retail trade. 

According to the Danish Crown, this business has not been profitable in recent years. This decision is part of the strategic plan to make the slaughterhouse in Essen profitable again. There had been repeated rumors about the Essen site being sold, but the Danish Crown denied these rumours shortly before Christmas and emphasised that it would continue to operate the slaughterhouse there itself. Around 160 employees were previously employed in the production of self-service packaged meat at the two German locations. 

The closure of the German self-service meat production is expected to have a negative effect of a low single-digit million euro amount on the Danish Crown's balance sheet in the current financial year. 

Meat consumption stabilises, vegan trend declines

Meat production in Germany has increased for the first time since 2016. According to preliminary figures from the Federal Statistical Office, commercial slaughterhouses produced around 6.9 million tonnes of meat in 2024. That was 97,200 tonnes and 1.4% more than in the previous year. 

How can this development be explained? YouGov retail expert Robert Kecskes has observed changes in consumer habits: 

"The big trend towards vegan and vegetarian has lost momentum, even among younger people… Meat is again seen as something more valuable." 

Meat consumption is stabilising. A lot of people are eating less, but willing to spend more money on meat and buy higher-quality products. 

Kecskes does not want to speak of a real turnaround. He expects that demand for quality will continue to grow in the future, but not the amount of meat. 

Almost 60% of people in Germany have eaten the same amount of meat and sausage in the past 12 months as in the previous 12 months. 

This is the result of a representative survey conducted by YouGov on behalf of the German Press Agency. 1,763 adults in Germany took part in the survey on 6 February:

  • 26% consumed less meat, just 4% more
  • Almost one in four people in Germany eats meat or sausage every day. This is the result of the nutrition report published by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture last year
  • 39% buy vegetarian or vegan alternative products. Because they taste good and are healthy or good for the climate and the environment - this is how buyers explain their motives. Animal welfare is also frequently mentioned

Despite the increase, meat production in Germany is far from its peak. In 2016, 8.4 million tonnes of meat were produced.

Anyone who observes developments in this country over a longer period of time will see that by far the largest increase has been recorded in poultry meat. The quantities produced have doubled since 2000. Consumers often think it’s healthier.

Trend Report Nutrition 2025: Opportunities for the meat industry

The 2025 Nutrition Trend Report shows that flexitarianism, sustainability and personalised nutrition will shape the future.

There are enormous opportunities for the meat industry to open up new markets with quality and innovation. NUTRITION HUB has published the fifth Nutrition Trend Report in collaboration with renowned partners such as the Federal Center for Nutrition (BZfE) and the Baden-Württemberg Cooperative State University. The survey of 199 experts in the nutrition industry offers a comprehensive overview of the most important trends that will shape nutrition in the future. 

1st place: Plant-based and flexitarian diet – Meat as part of a conscious mix 

The top trend for 2025 shows that consumers are increasingly opting for a balanced diet: lots of plant-based foods, occasionally supplemented with high-quality meat. This diet combines climate protection with enjoyment and enables conscious decisions without sacrifice. For the meat industry, this means that quality and sustainability are moving to the forefront. Regionality, animal welfare and transparent supply chains are increasingly becoming purchasing criteria.

2nd place: Personalised nutrition –Tailoring meat products to individual needs 

With the increasing popularity of apps and wearables that collect biometric data, nutrition is becoming more and more individual. Whether it's high-protein diets, specific nutrition plans for athletes or health-conscious target groups, meat can score points here as a key source of protein. Innovative, functional products could open up new markets for the industry. 

3rd place: Sustainable and climate-friendly nutrition 

More and more consumers are linking personal health goals with environmental awareness. Sustainability is a key factor in this. The meat industry can strengthen the image of meat products through environmentally friendly production methods and resource-saving processes. Transparency and innovations along the entire value chain will be crucial here.

4th place: Functional nutrition – Meat as part of a health-promoting lifestyle 

The demand for functional foods that contribute to health and well-being is growing. The so-called ‘longevity trend’ plays a major role here – the conscious extension of a healthy lifespan. Meat products enriched with valuable nutrients could establish themselves as an important part of a health-promoting lifestyle.

5th place: Nutrition for the gut

Gut health is another growing trend. Probiotic and fermented products are very popular. The meat industry could get a foot in the door here with fermented meat specialties or innovative products with added health benefits.  

Pork 

Germany imported more pigs in 2024

In 2024, increasing import numbers of pigs into Germany were recorded for the second time in a row. With 11.7 million animals imported, the number of animals delivered in the previous year was exceeded by 6%. 

Beef 

Germany exports fewer cattle 

Last year, Germany delivered slightly fewer cattle to other countries than in 2023. A total of just over 744,000 breeding and production cattle were exported - 1% fewer animals. 

Lamb

The current supply of lambs for slaughter remains very low. Due to the effects of bluetongue disease, the number of lambs is also lower than in previous years.

Many farms have to keep a large proportion of the female lambs on the farm for breeding in order to replenish the stocks. However, the small supply is sufficient to meet the low demand due to seasonal factors. Prices mostly remain at the level of the previous weeks.

Only for larger batches of good quality are there slight price increases. Supply from abroad is also declining, while prices for imported goods are also rising. The lambing season is currently starting hesitantly, but so far mostly healthy lambs have been reported. A significant improvement in the market is not expected in the coming weeks.

In the medium term, the limited supply situation is likely to have a price-supporting or even increasing effect. The national German average prices for lamb varies from €4.10 to €4.30 per kilogram of live weight class 1 (including VAT).

Prices

Lamb

 Supermarket

No. of stores

Date

Article

PRICE €/kg

(incl. VAT)

Origin

Hepsi Markt

3

15.02

Lamb French racks

17,49

UK

Hepsi Markt

3

21.02

Lamb shoulder

13,49

UK

Hepsi Markt

3

21.02

Lamb chumps deboned

27,90

UK

EDEKA

11 000

21.02

Lamb loins

39,90

NZ

Metro

102

21.02

Lamb French racks

28,34

IR

Metro

102

21.02

Lamb forequarter

6,94

NZ

REWE

3800

21.02

Lamb leg (bone in)

24,90

DE

REWE

3800

21.02

Lamb chumps deboned

29,90

DE

REWE

3800

21.02

Lamb French racks

44,90

DE

Beef

Supermarket

No. of stores

Date

Article

PRICE €/kg

(incl. VAT)

Origin

REWE

3800

21.02

Beef filet (young bull)

49,90

DE

REWE

3800

21.02

Roastbeef young bull

36,90

DE

Lidl

3250

21.02

Beef goulash (bio)

6,49

DE

Lidl

3250

21.02

Minced beef

7,99

DE

Metro

102

21.02

Dry-aged Irish tomahawk steak

29,41

IR

Metro

102

21.02

Dry-aged Irish roast beef

34,76

IR

Metro

102

21.02

 Irish ribeye

36,37

IR

Metro

102

21.02

Dry-aged short ribs “Emsland”

19,25

DE

Aldi Süd

2000

24.02

Irish ribeye

20,03

IR

Aldi Süd

2000

24.02

Beef goulash

11,98

DE

Butcher wolf pack penultimate training before the final in Paris

The penultimate training session of the German national butchers' team with English lamb took place on February 22 and 23. On March 30, the world championship title is to be defended by the German team. The UK Lions butchers' squad will also be there. 

The German team is in close contact with the UK Lions butchers' squad. In November 2023, the German butcher team traveled to England as part of a trip organised by AHDB and visited former team captain Simon Taylor and his butcher's shop in Surrey as well as an English lamb abattoir and a cattle farm.

The UK Lions squad for the World Butchers' Challenge in Paris 2025 has been revealed, featuring 19 butchers from around the country. With industry support from the newly formed Team GB Board, UK Lions began training in May last year in preparation for the World Butchers' Challenge. 

The three-day competition, also known as the Butchers' Olympics, will see butchers from 15 countries around the world compete in a series of challenges designed to test the skills and experience of the butcher teams. 

A Team GB Board was formed earlier this year to ensure a UK team is represented in the competition. The Board includes representatives from National Craft Butchers (NCB), Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), Dalesman Group, Scottish Craft Butchers (SCB), Dalesbrook, Institute of Meat (IoM), Q Guild and former team captain Simon Taylor. 

Team GB board chair Simon Coles of The Dalesman Group said in an interview with meat management magazine: "The board are all passionate about supporting the industry and wanted to ensure there was a Team GB competing in Paris and promoting our industry. The journey to Paris for our squad is just as important as the competition and I speak for all the board when I say we are delighted to support our industry in this way."

Simon Taylor, previous Team GB captain and current UK Lions squad member, said: "This is a global competition, the likes of which I've never seen before. It genuinely puts our industry on the pedestal it deserves, showcasing the true tradition and skillset of butchery. "In the story of British field to fork, butchery is often missed out. This competition gives us a spotlight on everything this industry does for our food system."

The Netherlands

Couping or castrating with elastic bands no longer allowed

It is no longer permitted to castrate or tail-dock sheep or calves using an elastic band in the Netherlands. Recent scientific research has shown that these methods, even with the use of painkillers, cause long-term pain to the animals.

Preventive tail docking is already banned for most breeds of sheep, except for Suffolk, Hampshire Down and Clun Forest.
The tails of ewes of these breeds will still be allowed to be surgically docked until 1 January 2028. This will allow breeders to work with sheep with shorter tails, which helps reduce the risk of myiasis.

Bluetongue hits cows and calves hard

Last year, bluetongue caused significant damage to the livestock sector, resulting in reduced production, stillbirths and increased mortality.

The financial impact in the short term is significant and while the long-term impact is uncertain, it could be less severe.

Bluetongue once again took its toll on the dairy industry in 2024, with consequences varying from farm to farm. Farms infected in the summer tended to experience the worst damage, while those infected in the autumn reported fewer problems.

Farmers who vaccinated animals generally experienced milder outbreaks and lower costs than those who had not. Vaccination not only prevents direct damage but also helps to manage secondary infections and supports the overall health of the animals.

Financial losses per 100 dairy cows can vary from around €10,000 for mild infections to more than €50,000 for severe cases.

Milk production per cow can be reduced by 1-8 kilograms per day, depending on the severity of the infection. This results in an estimated annual production loss of 2-10%, resulting in a financial loss of €7,200 to €36,000 per 100 cows. In addition, there is an estimated loss of 5-15% of animals, with higher-than-normal mortality rates.

There has also been an increase in the cost of replacing culled cows, putting additional financial pressure on farms. Loss of calves is also a concern. Premature births and other complications are estimated to cost €2,000 per 100 cows.

The long-term effects of bluetongue are not yet fully understood, but it is expected that most farms will ultimately fare relatively well.

However, concerns remain about the health of affected cows and the possibility of new infections, particularly with different serotypes of the virus.

Five offences could lead to slaughterhouse closure if repeated

When an inspector from the NVWA (Dutch Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority) finds a serious violation during an inspection at a slaughterhouse, this can result in a 'strike-out'.

There are five specific offences that can qualify for this, three of which can lead to the temporary closure of the slaughterhouse.
The offences are:

  1. Finding a live pig in the warming room.
  2. Fixing an animal for the purpose of stunning by standing or lying on it.
  3. Poking a live, unstunned animal in the eye or genitals with an object.
  4. Dragging a conscious recumbent animal.
  5. Failure to provide immediate relief to an animal in serious distress, such as a broken bone.

Before an offence is registered as a 'strike', these cases are first discussed by a multi-disciplinary team of experts.

Mosa Meat launches crowdfunding campaign for cultured burger

Mosa Meat is a Dutch company focused on the production of cultured meat, aiming to provide a sustainable and ethical alternative to traditional beef.

To enable the large-scale production of its Mosa Burgers, the company has launched a crowdfunding campaign.  Mosa Meat's aim is to offer consumers a burger identical in taste, flavour and juiciness to a traditional hamburger.

Cells are taken from selected cows under anaesthesia and from this small sample, the company can grow tens of thousands of burgers in a laboratory.

Mosa Meat was founded in 2016 and has raised over €160 million in funding. It hopes to bring the cultured burger to market soon with more than €2.3 million crowdfunded to be used for marketing and production.

The company is currently working on regulatory applications in the European Union and Singapore, and hopes to take similar steps in the UK and Switzerland soon.

Nutreco opens production line for cultured meat

With more companies opting for cultured meat, Dutch animal feed company Nutreco is responding by being the first to offer an alternative in the form of growth media for laboratories that produce cultured meat.

These media are essential for cultivating meat from muscle cells into a fully developed product.

Despite strict regulations in the Netherlands that still prevent the complete abolition of slaughter, the growing interest in cultured meat indicates an important development in the meat industry.

Era of meat substitutes is over

Robert van Ballegooijen, CEO of the Van Loon Group, says it is very unlikely that supermarkets will meet their targets for the protein transition by 2030.

He argues that measures such as stopping meat advertising, as Dutch supermarket Jumbo has done, are not going to speed up the transition. In his view, there is a need for more time and better solutions. Jumbo's decision to stop advertising meat is a bold move. It aims to make 60% of the protein it sells plant-based by 2030, but Van Ballegooijen says it is risky.

He points out that customers are often looking for good deals, and removing meat promotions could create the perception that meat is more expensive at Jumbo.

While Jumbo and other supermarket chains like Plus and Albert Heijn are looking to increase the share of plant-based proteins, Van Ballegooijen notes that demand for meat substitutes is declining. He points out that sales of meat substitutes fell by 5% and predicts a dark future for these products.

He refers to the return to meat consumption in the UK and the unsuccessful launch of Van Loon's own meat alternatives, which failed to appeal to consumers due to price and taste.

The Van Loon Group is now focusing on hybrid meat products, containing both meat and plant-based ingredients.

Van Ballegooijen thinks these hybrid products will help consumers get used to a greater variety of proteins. In order not to scare off consumers, he points out that it is important not to advertise the hybrid nature too prominently on the packaging.

Although he is a supporter of the protein transition, in his view the current target of 60% plant protein by 2030 is unrealistic.

He argues that more time is needed to make this transition, citing the slow consumer acceptance of sugar-free colas as an example.

The protein transition is a process that could take generations and supermarkets should not be pressured to achieve it quickly is his conclusion.

National Week Without Meat & Dairy opts for local approach

The eighth National Week Without Meat & Dairy takes place from 3-9 March, and this year the focus will be on a regional approach.

Since 2018, this campaign has been encouraging the Dutch to adopt a flexitarian diet.

In 2024, 2.8 million people took part, with 80% saying they wanted to eat less meat and 59% with a goal of reducing their dairy consumption.

With support from the EU's Horizon Europe programme, the foundation has launched a similar campaign in Belgium, Germany and Denmark in 2023. France will follow at the end of 2025.

Prices

Store

Number of stores

Date

Days

Piece

Origin

Price per kg

Jumbo

687

1 Feb

29

Lamb shoarma

NL

€19,79

Jumbo

687

1 Feb

29

Leg of lamb (slice)

NL

€30,99

Jumbo

687

1 Feb

29

Rumpsteak

IRL

€30,50

Jumbo

687

1 Feb

29

Entrecote

N.A.

€35,90

Albert Heijn

1100

1 Feb

29

Excellent Lamb rack

NZ

€44.97

Albert Heijn

1100

1 Feb

29

AH Excellent Lamb cutlet

NL

€45,19

Albert Heijn

1100

1 Feb

29

AH Excellent Entrecote

South-Am.

€36,63

Albert Heijn

1100

1 Feb

29

AH Excellent Rumpsteak

South-Am.

€39,93

News from other markets

Delhaize campaign 2024

Campaign Overview: A gamified marketing campaign (quiz) for AHDB Lamb was conducted across weeks 51 and 52 (December 2024) targeting Delhaize customers in Belgium. The campaign aimed to increase brand awareness and engagement.

Key metrics were:

  • Target audience: 200,000
  • Total participants: 3,443 (49% NL, 51% FR)
  • Email open rate (Email 1 & 2 combined): 44% (email 1: 44%, email 2: 43%)
  • Click-through rate (Email 1 & 2 combined): 4.34% (email 1: 4.53%, email 2: 3.80%)
  • Click-to-open rate: 10%

The 2024 campaign showed significant improvements compared to the previous year's campaign:

  • Open rate: Increased from 37% to 44%
  • Click-through rate: Increased from 3.64% to 4.34%
  • Total participants: Lower than the target, but considerably higher than the previous year's campaign

Conclusion:

The AHDB Lamb gamified campaign demonstrated a strong engagement rate, exceeding benchmarks despite not reaching the overall participation target. The campaign showed marked improvement over the previous year's results in terms of open and click-through rates.

AHDB beef and lamb social networks

YouTube: I love beef and lamb

  • As no new videos were uploaded recently, the organic growth of the channel is slowing a little. However, the overall numbers are still good, as the channel was still seen by more than 23,000 YouTube users, with a very good click-through rate of 5.2%
  • The videos on the channel were watched for a total of 41 hours. The most popular video for the fifth month in a row was a beef recipe from our collaboration with the Mastercooks of Belgium by chef Stéphane Gaulois from Restaurant Maxens. This video has now generated close to 133 hours of views and brought 197 new followers to the channel

Website: I love beef and lamb

  • We saw a significant drop in users and viewership, primarily due to the redirection to the new AHDB global website. Users can still access recipe pages through the Delhaize and Bord Bia campaign which means a significant amount of people engaged with the campaign
  • Once again, the most viewed page on the Dutch side is Praktische tips: lamssteak with 82 views and on the French side it was Buns Bao au beouf effiloché coréen with 50 views 

Facebook: I love beef and lamb

  • After several months of increase, the Facebook page reach seems to have stabilised again (both for reach and content interaction), and we reached close to 16,000 users this month
  • A new Mastercooks of Belgium video with chef Stefaan Lauwereins was shared, where it generated an additional 16,000 views. It was also shared on the Mastercooks of Belgium Facebook group
  • In addition to this video, the Mastercooks of Belgium also shared five of our recipes on their private Facebook group
  • There was no mention on the Mastercooks of Belgium Facebook public page this month

Instagram

  • Our Instagram organic reach is still low
  • On the Mastercooks of Belgium Instagram page, our logo appears in the cover of one of their posts but no mention in the post itself

Retail promotions

Promo - papers

Promo - online

News

USA

  • For US pig meat producers, any tariff escalation with Canada and Mexico could have severe repercussions. The North American supply chain is tightly integrated, with live animals, feed ingredients, and pork products frequently crossing borders. Retaliatory measures could increase costs, disrupt exports, and limit access to critical inputs. (Source: Swineweb)
  • Jamieson Greer, US trade representative, said earlier in February that a universal tariff needs further study to gauge its impact on raising US trade deficits, and put countries on notice they must lower import barriers to maintain access to the US market. (Source: Reuters)
  • The US pig meat industry faces a complex landscape in early 2025, balancing improved productivity and evolving consumer demands against economic volatility, rising geopolitical risks, and persistent disease threats. (Source: Swineweb)
  • The Shapiro Administration has announced a $600,000 investment to support and strengthen Pennsylvania’s meat-processing industry, aiming to enhance local supply chains, improve efficiency, and boost the state’s agricultural economy (Source: Swineweb)
  • Several factors could keep cattle prices elevated through 2025. These factors generally revolve around tight cattle supplies, strong demand, nationally and internationally, and rising input costs (Source: Drovers)
  • US pig meat volume exports for 2024 were 3.03 million mt, up 4% from 2023. Export value totalled $8.63 billion, up 6% from 2023. (Source: USMEF)
  • For the full year 2024, US beef exports were 1.29 million mt, down 0.5% year-on-year, while value increased 5% to $10.45 billion. (Source: USMEF)
  • Exports of US lamb totalled 2,723 mt in 2024, up 16% year-on-year, while export value climbed 14% to $14.3 million. The Caribbean and Mexico are the two largest destinations for US lamb muscle cuts. (Source: USMEF)
  • US pig meat exports to Mexico totaled 1.15 million Mt in 2024, up 5% from 2023. Export value climbed 10% in 2024 to $2.58 billion. (Source: USMEF)
  • Colombia’s demand for US pork reached new heights in 2024, with exports scoring 26% to 142,035mt. Export value jumped 32% to just under $360 million. (Source: USMEF)
  • US pig meat to Central America climbed 21% to 166,086mt, valued at $522.9 million, up 29% from 2023. US Exports to the region increased by a massive 70% from 2019 to 2024, while export value more than doubled (Source: USMEF)
  • US pig meat exports to the Caribbean climbed 5% from 2023 to 127,237mt, valued at $380.6 million, up 7%. (Source: USMEF)
  • With US beef exports to Mexico increasing 10% year-on-year to 232,488mt, valued at $1.35 billion, up 13%. (Source: USMEF)

Canada

  • Canada Beef Latin America and Mexico (LATAM) conducted a specialised Canadian beef cutting seminar in Puerto Vallarta (Mexico). (Source: Canada Beef)
  • From January to November, beef imports were up 11% in volume and 18% in value from last year. Imports from the UK were up 170% in volume and 174% in value to 4,696 tonnes and $39 million. The market share from the UK is 2% of total beef import volumes (Source: Canadian Beef Trade)
  • Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) and Porcine Deltacoronavirus (PDCoV) cases are on the rise in Ontario. Producers are urged to strengthen biosecurity (Source: Swineweb)
  • Canadian pork industry remains concerned about long-term market access and competitiveness, highlighting: US tariff delay is temporary, making difficult for producers to plan and invest; competitiveness concerns; need for diversification to other export markets beyond US; continued advocacy, for a stable and predictable trade relationships to ensure long-term viability (Source: Manitoba Co-operator)
  • Canada wants to deepen its economic ties with the EU and uphold global trading rules in the face of threatened US tariffs (Source: Reuters)
  • Global food company JBS USA is investing $200 millin in its Cactus, Texas and Greeley, Colorado, beef production facilities. (Source: The National Provisioner)
  • The US Department of Agriculture’s Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service is announcing the resumption of cattle and bison imports from Mexico

Brazil

  • Brazilian pig meat exports totalled 106,000 tonnes in January, according to the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA). This number is 6.4% higher than the total shipped in the same period last year, with 99,600 tonnes. The revenue reached $238 million, up 19.6% from January 2024. (Source: The Pig Site)

Bolivia

  • Bolivian meat producers declare emergency after export ban. The suspension was announced by Productive Development Minister Néstor Huanca, citing the need to regulate supply and reduce the price of meat in the domestic market. (Source: MercoPress)

AHDB events

4–6 March –  Monterrey NL: Expo Carnes y Lácteos is a bi-annual leading trade show for the meat and dairy industries, connecting key suppliers, producers and industry professionals from Mexico and Latin America. We will be promoting British pork at booth 2438.

24–26 March – World Center Marriott, Orlando, FL: We will be exhibiting at AMC in the meat hall, providing visitors with the chance to sample our high-quality and sustainably produced pork and lamb. It is the premier event industry for meat operations. We will be at booth 1026

Prices

Monday, 24 February 2025

 

Quebec average (C$/cKg DW) 100 index

 

USDA wholesale pork prices (US$/cwt) (LM PK602)

$97.07

Loin

$89.01

Butt

$109.00

Picnic

$68.92

Rib

$150.78

Ham

$87.86

Belly

$144.41

Monday, 24 February 2025

 

 

USDA beef cutout values

Values reflect US$ per 100 pounds

 

Choice

Select

 

600900

600900

Current cutout values

313.74

303.63

Change from prior day

2.97

1.07

Primal rib

467.30

434.16

Primal chuck

268.34

263.56

Primal round

284.11

287.33

Primal loin

403.13

377.11

Primal brisket

238.79

237.93

Primal short plate

214.69

214.69

Primal flank

143.60

141.62

Mexican pork prices

Saturday, 22 February 2025

 

Mexican pesos per kg

 

Carcase/Canal

$73.00

Loin/Lomo

$114.00

Butt/Cabeza de Lomo

$109.00

Picnic/Espaldilla

$86.00

Tongue/Lengua

$71.00

Ham/Pernil

$89.00

Belly/Tocino

$121.00

Offals/Visceras

$8.00

Fat/Grasa

$34.00

Head/Cabeza

$38.50

Brains/Sesos

$100.00

Retailer promotions

Sonae/Continente

This month Sonae opted to promote cheap beef cuts only and there was nothing relevant to our area. This makes sense because mid-February is a period when consumers are still feeling the impact of Christmas spending. Because of this, chicken and pork were more popular in promotional leaflets.

Pino Doce

Pingo Doce focused more on picanha (rump cap) and maminha (rump Tip), beef cuts popular with Portuguese consumers. Picanha was at a very competitive price of €12.98/kg, while maminha was €12.48/kg, in this case sliced. The origin is referred to as European so it could be from any country except the domestic market.

Due to the popularity of both cuts, they are also offered from a South American origin, which is perceived as higher quality and always more expensive due to import tariffs.

At the moment Lamb is not promoted at all as retailers are waiting for Easter - a key season for both lamb and baby goat, which are traditional Portuguese Easter dishes.

Market activities

This month we were at two major events with the Sonae group.

We held a show-cooking demonstration using UK lamb on 1-2 February with our kitchen and chef Pedro Sommer at the Matosinhos Continente store near Porto. Consumers were eager to taste the product and sales in the shop quadrupled as a result.

On 4 February, Sonae organised a management meeting followed by lunch where our chef Pedro Sommer promoted UK lamb. The group was impressed with the taste of the product and Pedro’s recipes, and it was a useful activity to help the Sonae meat management highlight the importance of offering UK lamb in their stores with the board.

Events

We will be at Foodex Japan from 11-14 March. Companies attending include ABP, C&K Meats, Cranswick, Dingley Dell, Wicks Manor, Dunbia, Foyle and Kepak. There will be showcase events including a British Meat Dinner on Monday 10 March and a UK networking reception at the British Embassy in Tokyo on Wednesday 12 March.

On Monday 17 March we are holding a Trade Seminar and Dinner in Taiwan. This will be an opportunity for pork and lamb exporters from the UK to network with importers in the market. There will be a high-profile chef from Taiwan at the event doing a cooking demonstration using our products, with lamb the key focus.

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