Lamb 2030 supply forecasts: Methodology and the four scenarios

Four scenarios have been proposed to give a range of trajectories for sheep meat production by 2030.

The scenarios are based on applying recent historical trends from 2025 onwards and therefore do not account for external market forces: for example, the impact of price movements on slaughter rates.

Assumptions

Across the four scenarios:

• The size of the GB breeding ewe flock and estimated rearing rates are the key variables adjusted to account for changes in production
• The models assume some improvement in estimated lamb-rearing rates from 2024 onwards, back to the three-year average (2021–23) of 118% (having been notably lower than this in 2023)
• Carcase weights are assumed on a rolling five-year average
• Other metrics such as the lamb crop and clean and adult sheep slaughter are calculated within the forecast using average rates where appropriate

Detailed assumptions for each scenario are described below.

Baseline 

The baseline scenario applies the 10-year average rate of annual change (2014–2023) of -0.4% to the national breeding ewe flock from 2025 onwards.

The rearing rate returns to the three-year average, increasing incrementally until 2026 before stabilising at 118%.

Range 

To forecast a range around this baseline, a best-case and worst-case scenario have been modelled.

Best-case scenario

The best-case scenario applies an annual rate of change of +0.7% from 2025 onwards until 2030.

It assumes that market conditions and profitability allow for tempered expansion in the number of females within the breeding flock.

The rearing rate returns to the three-year average of 118% more quickly than the baseline scenario. 

Worst-case scenario

The worst-case scenario sees the breeding flock contract by 1% per year from 2025 onwards.

It assumes that recent downward trends in the size of the female breeding flock continue; however, at a slower pace than declines seen in 2018 and 2023.

Contraction in the breeding flock is more severe than the baseline. The rearing rate returns to the three-year average of 118% at a slower rate of growth than the baseline scenario. 

Best-case + scenario 

The best-case + scenario builds on the forecast range by offering a realistic trajectory for production if factors such as producer confidence and efficiency improved further.

It allows for further expansion in the breeding flock of 1% per year while assuming a faster rate of improvement in the rearing rate, back to the 10-year average of 122%.

Risks, limitations and caveats 

The scenarios are based on applying annual percentage changes to the breeding flock and assumptions for variables including lambing and culling percentage.

The models underlying the scenarios are static: they do not factor in any future market forces such as changes in consumption, imports, exports or prices, and any subsequent market impact.

There is generally a lack of accurate and timely data relating to the sheep industry, which presents challenges for robust forecasting and outlooks for the sector. More detailed survey information would help to inform key industry movements, including data to explore different sheep production systems such as hill, upland and lowland.

Caveats that could influence the outcome of the forecasts

• Contraction or expansion in consumer demand at a domestic and international level
• Changing government policies or interventions that could incentivise or discourage sheep meat production
• Disease outbreaks that could negatively affect mortality rates, productivity or animal movements
• Impact of extreme weather and/or climate change on land use and sheep meat production
• Changes to international sheep meat trading patterns and market access
• Changes in land use and production systems (for example, from uptake of natural capital schemes or increased integration of sheep in arable rotations)