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Lamb 2030 supply forecasts: Results
We forecast 2030 figures and percentage change compared with 2023 actual data (the latest available) for each scenario. Following that are graphs comparing all scenarios, showing actual and forecast trends since 2018.
Baseline scenario
| Measure | 2030 forecast | Change versus 2023 data | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % | No. | ||
| Female breeding flock (thousand head) | 12,025 | -6.8 | -873 |
| Clean sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 11,576 | -1.8 | -215 |
| Lamb crop (thousand head) | 14,247 | -5.0 | -752 |
| Adult sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 1,430 | -11.8 | -192 |
| Production (thousand tonnes) | 274 | -0.6 | -2 |
Source: AHDB
Best-case scenario
| Measure | 2030 forecast | Change versus 2023 data | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % | No. | ||
| Female breeding flock (thousand head) | 12,844 | -0.4 | -54 |
| Clean sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 12,050 | +2.2 | +258 |
| Lamb crop (thousand head) | 15,051 | +0.3 | +52 |
| Adult sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 1,513 | -6.8 | -110 |
| Production (thousand tonnes) | 286 | +3.7 | +10 |
Source: AHDB
Worst-case scenario
| Measure | 2030 forecast | Change versus 2023 data | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % | No. | ||
| Female breeding flock (thousand head) | 11,597 | -10.1 | -1,301 |
| Clean sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 11,323 | -4.0 | -469 |
| Lamb crop (thousand head) | 13,823 | -7.8 | -1,176 |
| Adult sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 1,387 | -14.5 | -235 |
| Production (thousand tonnes) | 268 | -2.9 | -8 |
Source: AHDB
Best-case + scenario
| Measure | 2030 forecast | Change versus 2023 data | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % | No. | ||
| Female breeding flock (thousand head) | 13,076 | +1.4 | +177 |
| Clean sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 12,667 | +7.4 | +876 |
| Lamb crop (thousand head) | 15,794 | +5.3 | +795 |
| Adult sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 1,536 | -5.4 | -87 |
| Production (thousand tonnes) | 299 | +8.5 | +23 |
Source: AHDB
Breeding ewe flock and lamb crop (all scenarios)
Size of the GB breeding ewe flock 2018–2030
f = forecast
Source: Defra, AHDB
Clean and adult sheep slaughter (all scenarios)
Size of GB lamb crop 2018–2030
f = forecast
Source: Defra, AHDB
Clean sheep slaughter numbers 2018–2030
f = forecast
Source: Defra, AHDB
The growth in clean sheep slaughter from 2025 to 2026 is due to the return to the rearing rate of 118%, increasing the lamb crop and numbers available for slaughter as a result. This also applies to the increase in production across this time.
GB adult sheep slaughter numbers 2018–2030
f = forecast
Source: Defra, AHDB
In all scenarios, adult sheep slaughter is calculated based on applying average cull rates to changes in the breeding flock.
Sheep meat production (all scenarios)
GB sheep meat production 2018–2030
f = forecast
Source: Defra, AHDB
Continue reading about the analysis
Methodology and the four scenarios
How sheep meat production in Great Britain may change by 2030