Search our website enhanced by Google.
- Home
- Knowledge library
- Lamb 2030 supply forecasts: Results
Lamb 2030 supply forecasts: Results
We forecast 2030 figures and % change compared with 2023 actual data (the latest available) for each scenario. Following that are graphs comparing all scenarios, showing actual and forecast trends since 2018.
Baseline scenario
| Measure | 2030 forecast | Change versus 2023 data | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % | No. | ||
| Female breeding flock (thousand head) | 12,025 | -6.8 | -873 |
| Clean sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 11,576 | -1.8 | -215 |
| Lamb crop (thousand head) | 14,247 | -5.0 | -752 |
| Adult sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 1,430 | -11.8 | -192 |
| Production (thousand tonnes) | 274 | -0.6 | -2 |
Source: AHDB
Best-case scenario
| Measure | 2030 forecast | Change versus 2023 data | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % | No. | ||
| Female breeding flock (thousand head) | 12,844 | -0.4 | -54 |
| Clean sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 12,050 | +2.2 | +258 |
| Lamb crop (thousand head) | 15,051 | +0.3 | +52 |
| Adult sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 1,513 | -6.8 | -110 |
| Production (thousand tonnes) | 286 | +3.7 | +10 |
Source: AHDB
Worst-case scenario
| Measure | 2030 forecast | Change versus 2023 data | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % | No. | ||
| Female breeding flock (thousand head) | 11,597 | -10.1 | -1,301 |
| Clean sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 11,323 | -4.0 | -469 |
| Lamb crop (thousand head) | 13,823 | -7.8 | -1,176 |
| Adult sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 1,387 | -14.5 | -235 |
| Production (thousand tonnes) | 268 | -2.9 | -8 |
Source: AHDB
Best-case + scenario
| Measure | 2030 forecast | Change versus 2023 data | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % | No. | ||
| Female breeding flock (thousand head) | 13,076 | +1.4 | +177 |
| Clean sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 12,667 | +7.4 | +876 |
| Lamb crop (thousand head) | 15,794 | +5.3 | +795 |
| Adult sheep slaughter (thousand head) | 1,536 | -5.4 | -87 |
| Production (thousand tonnes) | 299 | +8.5 | +23 |
Source: AHDB
Breeding ewe flock and lamb crop (all scenarios)
Size of the GB breeding ewe flock 2018–2030
f = forecast
Source: Defra, AHDB
Size of GB lamb crop 2018–2030
f = forecast
Source: Defra, AHDB
The growth in clean sheep slaughter from 2025 to 2026 is due to the return to the rearing rate of 118%, increasing the lamb crop and numbers available for slaughter as a result. This also applies to the increase in production across this time.
GB adult sheep slaughter numbers 2018–2030
f = forecast
Source: Defra, AHDB
Continue reading about the analysis
Methodology and the four scenarios
Back to: How sheep meat production in Great Britain may change by 2030