Lamb market outlook

Key points

• Total sheep meat production is expected to grow by 2% year-on-year to 272,000 tonnes. This is supported by an increased carryover of lambs from 2024, contributing to higher kill in the first half of the year
• We forecast that the 2025/26 lamb crop will total 15.5 million head, a predicted 2% fall on the previous year. This is primarily driven by a reduction in the breeding flock
• Retail and foodservice demand for lamb is expected to ease (-2%), following an exceptional year in 2024
• Exports of lamb are forecast to grow slightly (0.9%), in line with anticipated production growth and supported by continued import demand from the EU
• Imports of lamb are expected to be lower than 2024, down by 13%; however, they remain historically high

Significant challenges on the supply side, combined with robust demand, led to record-high prices in the UK lamb market in 2024. Imports grew substantially to support supply, and we saw exports ease back.

For 2025 we are forecasting a slight increase in domestic production, supported by higher carryover of 2024-born lambs. We expect the lamb crop to reduce slightly, driven by a smaller female breeding flock and the assumption of a slight improvement in rearing rates. Imports will lower as domestic demand is expected to soften, while exports could lift slightly, in line with higher production.

Supply

Risks

This outlook does not account for the risk of a disease outbreak or severe weather conditions in the year ahead, both of which could lead to above-average mortality or production losses in the sheep flock, with significant potential implications on supply.

Breeding flock

We expect a continued reduction in the size of the female breeding flock, as at 1 December 2024. It is forecast to contract by 2.5%, compared to the same point the previous year. The Defra livestock census will be released later in the year, which will give greater certainty on this, and this outlook will be updated accordingly.

This assumption follows the reduction we saw in the June 2024 census, particularly in ewes for first-time breeding, which were down 8.6% year-on-year. This is likely to be a reflection of more ewe lambs being sold in the spring at the peak of the market.

Reports suggested strong trade in the breeding sales over the winter, with good demand for breeding females. This, alongside the continued strength in the lamb price, could indicate an appetite for producers to retain females for breeding, slowing the long-term decline in the breeding flock.

2025/26 lamb crop

We predict the 2025/26 lamb crop will total 15.5 million head, a 2% fall on the previous year. The aforementioned reduction in the female breeding flock is the primary driver for this decline.

The forecast accounts for a slight improvement in the rearing rate compared to previous years. However, this is susceptible to risks such as disease and weather. Reports from scanning thus far have been mixed, depending on region and system.

Clean sheep slaughter

Carryover/old season lambs (OSLs)

Throughout 2024 we saw significant declines in production, driven primarily by lower clean sheep slaughter. For the full year of 2024, clean sheep slaughter was down by 7% on the previous year, with weather and disease challenges throughout the year cited as major contributors to this decline.

We expect a higher carryover of lambs from 2024 into 2025, which will boost kill figures in the first half of the year. A series of challenges throughout 2024, such as wet spring lambing and difficulties with worm burdens in the autumn, have hindered the growth and condition of lambs. We predict that this means a greater proportion of the 2024 crop is still to come forward for slaughter. We estimate this carryover at 4.1 million head, 4% higher than last year.

2025/26 new season lambs (NSLs)

Turning to new season supply, we expect a higher proportion of 2025/26 lambs to be slaughtered in the first half of the year, with new season kill for Jan–Jun totalling 1.4 million head.

Clean sheep slaughter in the second half of 2025 is forecast to be flat year-on-year, at 6.0 million head. This is despite a smaller lamb crop, as we expect that a greater proportion will be killed as NSLs, in a more typical slaughter pattern than recorded in 2024.

Adult sheep slaughter

Adult sheep slaughter for 2025 is forecast at 1.5 million head, an increase of 5% on 2024. This is, however, annualising against a very low year and still sits a level below previous years.

Production

Total sheep meat production in 2025 is expected to grow by 2% year-on-year to 272,000 tonnes. This increase in production is driven primarily by higher carryover, leading to an increase in the number of sheep slaughtered in H1.

The forecast assumes carcase weights will remain level on previous years, in line with the long-term trend.

Trade

Exports

Throughout 2024 we saw sheep meat export volumes lower, back 6% for the year to date (YTD) (Jan–Nov) compared to the same period of 2023. France remains our largest destination for sheep meat exports, taking 54% of exports, by volume, in Jan–Nov 2024. Other European countries, such as Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, are also key export destinations.

In 2025, we expect a slight growth in export volumes, up 1% year-on-year, to reach about 84,000 tonnes. This is in line with anticipated slight growth in domestic production. Furthermore, the European Commission is forecasting growth in import demand, indicating an opportunity for growth for UK product.

Imports

Import volumes rose significantly in 2024, driven by lower domestic supply and sustained consumer demand. Trade data for Jan–Nov 2024 shows UK import volumes up by 41% year-on-year.

New Zealand continued to be the UK’s majority sheep meat supplier in 2024, with a market share of 60% (YTD Jan–Nov). We have seen a growing volume of sheep meat imported from Australia, a trend which may continue as Australia looks to strengthen its export portfolio.

Looking forward for 2025, we expect import volumes to reduce significantly compared to 2024, down 13% year-on-year. This decrease can be attributed to an increase in domestic supply alongside a softening in consumer demand.

Demand

In 2024, total lamb volumes increased by 6% year-on-year, making it the fastest-growing red meat. Within retail, consumer demand far exceeded the levels AHDB predicted for 2024, with lamb volumes up 4% (Kantar, 52 w/e 29 December 2024).

Several factors have contributed to this increase, including some consumers becoming less price focused, as well as more promotional support. Within the out-of-home market lamb has also performed well, with volumes up by 4% in dining out and +18% in takeaways (AHDB estimates based on Kantar OOH data, 52 w/e 29 December 2024).

For the year ahead we expect a level of economic uncertainty, as detailed in our economic outlook. We expect business confidence will remain low, and this will likely feed down to shoppers. After multiple years of overcoming challenges and reconsidering how to spend their money, we expect any changes in shopping behaviour to be gradual and we predict this will inhibit lamb achieving the demand it saw in 2024.

Therefore, we forecast lamb volumes will be down by 2% in 2025.

For more details on 2024 trends and cut specifics, see our retail and foodservice dashboards.

Lamb volumes by channel

*AHDB estimate as of January 2025

Source: AHDB

In retail, the importance of promotions for lamb has been very apparent, particularly around key events. With farmgate prices increasing over the last year, we predict retailers will be unable to maintain such deep promotions, especially around Easter, Ramadan and Eid. We predict this will drive retail declines, particularly for roasting joints. Ramadan and Eid are earlier in 2025 and Easter falls later, which means the timing for this demand will change. We saw the performance of lamb start to decline towards the end of 2024, with Christmas hindered by a loss of promotions. This highlights the category’s dependence on promotions, especially in this economic climate.

Despite lamb being unable to match 2024’s unprecedented highs, we believe demand in retail will remain buoyant versus 2023. A growing area for lamb last year was added value; we predict this will continue its positive trajectory as consumers need for convenience grows, with the average preparation time for an evening meal reduced from 34 minutes in 2021 to 31 minutes in 2024 (Kantar Usage, evening meal, 52 w/e 12 May 2024 vs May 2021). Continued promotional support, particularly through meal deals, and retailer development of added-value ranges could increase shopper demand.

For out-of-home we expect volumes to be flat year-on-year and takeaways to decline slightly, as some may look to spend less on this channel. We predict value-led lamb meals, such as kebabs and curries, will continue to perform well. But lamb has also benefited from some operators adding more premium mains to menus (Lumina), targeting consumers looking to treat themselves with cuts they may not feel confident to cook at home.

How might the outlook for lamb demand be improved?

The lamb outlook might be improved if the industry:

• Provides inspiration for tasty, easy-to-cook lamb dishes in a way that gives reassurance to consumers who may be less familiar with how to cook lamb
• Utilises tactical support, particularly around key events, such as promotions, meal deals and prominent placing in store
• Encourages consumers with the right messaging in store, online, on pack and in foodservice
• Boosts lamb presence on menus to capture premium out-of-home dining occasions
• Addresses health concerns by communicating the health benefits of lamb, such as being a good source of B12, iron and protein
• In the longer term, looks to maintain and build consumer trust, demonstrating where farming values (animal welfare, environmental stewardship, and expertise) are shared with consumers. See our consumer reputation landscape hub for more information

AHDB has a range of marketing activities planned for the year, including the new Let’s Eat Balanced campaign. Please visit our marketing pages for more information. For more insight around consumer demand, visit our retail and consumer page.

What could the outlook mean for prices?

Throughout 2024 we saw record-high prices, with strong demand and lower supplies underpinning the market.

Going into 2025, higher carryover will likely support supply during the peak demand period of Easter and Ramadan in the spring, which may limit price growth. Furthermore, expectations for fewer lamb promotions in retail may dampen consumer demand, easing price pressure slightly.

However, a continued decline in the female breeding flock and expectations of a smaller lamb crop point to continued tightness in supply, which may continue to support the price.

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