10-year low global maize ending stocks: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-25) ended yesterday at £190.00/t, up £0.70/t from Monday’s close. The Nov-25 contract also gained £0.70/t over the same period, to close at £196.80/t.
• Domestic wheat futures closed higher yesterday following Paris grain markets. Chicago wheat futures were down 0.42% and Paris milling wheat futures (May-25) were up 0.10% at yesterday’s close. In France the winter wheat area is forecast to increase by 10% in 2025, compared to the 2024 harvest, but the winter barley area is forecast to decrease by 2.1%, according to latest information from Frances Agricultural Ministry. Winter crop conditions and the Northern Hemisphere weather forecast remain in focus for market participants.
• May-25 Paris rapeseed futures closed at €523.00/t yesterday, up €6.50/t from Monday’s close. The estimated area for winter rapeseed in France has been reduced from 1.34 Mha to 1.27 Mha, 4.1% less than last year. Malaysian palm oil futures (May-25) rose for the fourth consecutive session and Chicago soybean oil futures (May 25) were up 0.8% at yesterday's close.

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Grain and oilseed markets closed mixed yesterday following the release of the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Chicago futures fell and Paris futures rose. Chicago grain markets fell as US maize ending stocks were estimated higher by the USDA than average pre-report trade estimates. However, we saw yesterday that estimates for global ending stocks in the 2024/25 season for maize, wheat and soybeans were lowered compared to January’s forecast.  

For maize global ending stocks are estimated at a 10-year low of 290.3 Mt, down 3.0 Mt from previous forecasts and below the minimum of 291 Mt expected by traders. This is a bullish factor for the global maize market, but US maize ending stocks data stimulated Chicago futures to ease at yesterday's close.   

The USDA reduced its maize export forecasts for Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa for the 2024/25 season. Unfavourable weather in Brazil and Argentina led to the USDA cutting maize production estimates for the 2024/25 season for both countries by 1 Mt. 

China’s maize imports were trimmed to 10 Mt, down 3 Mt compared to January estimates and down 13.4 Mt from 2023/24. Policy intervention to support falling domestic maize prices amid weaker consumption is the main driver of China’s drop in maize imports. Falling prices for maize in China reflect slowing demand growth from end users, particularly the livestock sector, which is struggling with weaker consumer spending.

Looking ahead

Despite yesterday's decline in Chicago maize futures following the USDA WASDE report, fundamentally maize has a case to support prices in the medium term on the back of 10-year lows in global maize ending stocks.

Chinese maize import demand is now a major pressure factor on the market. US import tariff issues for China and Mexico could limit any upside potential as it gives the physical market an unpredictable environment.

For the domestic market, global maize prices are an important driver for UK feed wheat futures prices due to maize’s influence on UK feed wheat prices.

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