2025 rapeseed crops faring better than winter cereals: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-25) closed at £184.65/t yesterday, falling £1.40/t from Friday’s close, a new all-time low for the contract. The Nov-25 contract lost £0.60/t over the same period, to close at £185.95/t.
• While Paris milling wheat futures gained in response to the weakening of the euro, UK feed wheat and Chicago wheat futures were pressured with sterling strengthening against the euro and the US dollar strengthening against a number of currencies.
• The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) left its wheat production estimate relatively unchanged (+0.1 Mt) at 31.9 Mt. However, the latest estimate is up 23% on the year due the significant rise of production in New South Wales and Western Australia.
• Paris rapeseed futures (May-25) closed at €508.25/t yesterday, rising €5.00/t from Friday’s close. The Aug-25 contract gained €3.00/t over the same period, to close at €471.00/t.
• In addition to the weakening of the euro, Paris rapeseed futures found support as ABARES estimated Australian rapeseed production 8% lower on the year at 5.6 Mt due to a lower planted area (-5% year-on-year) and lower yields.

Sign up to receive the Weekly Market Report and Grain Market Daily from AHDB.

AHDB’s first report on the condition of GB winter crops for harvest 2025 shows winter oilseed rape (WOSR) in a much stronger condition, than winter wheat, barley or oats.

As of 25 November, 73% of WOSR across GB was rated as in good or excellent condition. While a year-on-year comparison isn’t available, the rating is not far behind November 2022 when 77% was in a good or excellent condition or November 2021 (78%). However, ratings for winter cereals are notably lower than WOSR. As of 25 November, 57% of winter barley, 52% of winter oats, and 45% of winter wheat was in a good / excellent condition.

The weather again provided challenges to planting winter cereal crops this autumn, though with substantial variation across GB. It has alternated between very wet and relatively long dry periods before turning wet again, affecting parts of GB in different ways. Most WOSR (74%) was planted in August with better weather, while the more difficult autumn conditions had larger impacts on barley, wheat and oats.

With the delays to planting, RSK ADAS Ltd estimates 7% of winter barley, 18% of winter wheat and 11% of winter oats for harvest 2025 were yet to be planted or emerge as of 25 November. Plus, there is still uncertainty about these crops following storms Bert and Conall towards the end of November. 

It’s hard to make full comparisons to November 2022 given nearly all winter crops had emerged by end-November 2022. But the crops for harvest 2025 still look to be notably lagging those for harvest 2023 at this point when most winter cereals were in good / excellent condition.

Nonetheless, conditions of emerged winter cereal crops are still better than might have been otherwise expected given the planting conditions this autumn.

AHDB’s Early Bird Survey points to a further decline in the OSR planted area, which even the current record yield wouldn’t be able to offset. But the much more positive start for crops is still very welcome after last season’s challenges.

From a market perspective, the smaller winter barley area, plus potentially a below-average wheat area for harvest 2025 puts extra emphasis on yields to support production. But this report illustrates how farmers have yet again faced a challenging start for winter cereal crops. We’ll need to monitor crop conditions closely going forward.

Get the full details of crop conditions, development and pressure as of 25 November 2024 here. The next report is due at the end of March 2025.

Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB.

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.