Analyst insight: Strong start for UK 2026 winter crops

• The May-26 UK feed wheat futures contract closed at £173.35/t yesterday, up £0.60/t (0.4%) from Wednesday’s close. The Nov-26 futures contract, which shows the price for the 2026 crop, rose by £0.30/t to £176.45/t.
• Paris milling wheat futures (May-26) remained unchanged at yesterday’s close, while the US futures market was closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. The European Commission increased by 0.8 Mt its estimate of 2025/26 usable production of soft wheat in the European Union to 134.2 Mt.
• Argentina's 2025/26 wheat harvest is expected to reach a record 25.5 Mt, up from a previous estimate of 24.0 Mt, thanks to higher-than-expected yields, according to data released yesterday by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.   
• Paris rapeseed futures (Feb-26) fell €0.25/t to €483.25/t yesterday, while futures for May-26 increased by €0.25/t to €478.75/t.
• The European Commission on Thursday increased its estimate of 2025/26 usable production of rapeseed in the European Union to 20.2 Mt. The forecast for EU rapeseed imports unchanged remains from the previous estimate at 5.5 Mt but down 31% from last season. However, the current level, as of 21 November, is only 1.5 Mt, down 40% compared with 2.5 Mt last season.

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AHDB’s first report on the condition of crops for harvest 2026 shows very good prospects for winter wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape.

Nationally, drilling conditions were much better than last year and drilling almost, with only 3% of winter wheat crops remaining to be drilled as of 24 November. Most crops have also emerged, and many have seen rapid development. A large carryover of nitrogen from fertiliser applied between April and June has been reported, which may have contributed to this rapid development so far. Management of dense, forward crops may be required if mild conditions persist throughout the winter.

An estimated 83% of the 2026 winter wheat crop was rated as in good or excellent condition by Monday 24 November 2025. Meanwhile, 89% of winter barley, 87% of winter oats and 82% of winter oilseed rape (WOSR) crops were also in good or excellent condition.

This comes in stark but very welcome contrast to last year, when wet weather delayed drilling and hampered early growth, especially for the main winter cereal crops. For example, at this point last year, with 18% of winter wheat crops still to be planted or emerge, just 44% of crops were rated as in good or excellent condition.

While comparable data is not available for November 2023 (harvest 2024), many crops, especially wheat, suffered from the intensely wet conditions. The current condition ratings are close to levels last seen in November 2022 (harvest 2023).

Overall, crop potential for harvest 2026 looks promising, and there is hope that higher yields will help offset current low prices. However, it’s important to remember that farmers have experienced two very difficult financial years and low margins remain a challenge, with depressed malting and milling premiums adding further pressure.

Click here to read the report in full.

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