Arable Market Report – 2 March 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, May-26 contract

UK feed wheat futures (May-26 contract) gained £0.70/t or 0.4% last week and ended the week at £169.00/t (solid green line with markers in Figure 1).

The May-26 price lifted notably less than comparable global wheat futures (see below). Meanwhile, the UK futures Nov-26 contract gained 1.4%, only a little less than new crop global futures.

This widened the gap between old and new crop UK futures and could suggest that domestic old crop wheat supplies are weighing on May-26 futures prices.

The relative strength index (RSI) for the May-26 contract edged back from 54 on 20 February to 52 on 27 February.

Global wheat futures prices edged higher again last week, with US–Iran tensions and mixed weather for winter wheat crops in focus.

Tenders by major global importers, including those by Algeria (around 600 Kt) and Saudi Arabia (655 Kt), also added support, but high global supplies and competition for exports limited gains.

May-26 Paris wheat futures and Chicago wheat futures gained 1.3% and 1.9% respectively between 20 and 27 February. Meanwhile, key new crop (Dec-26) contracts in both futures gained 1.9% over the same period.

Wheat prices dipped in the early part of last week on profit-taking by speculative traders after last week’s rises and currency shifts.

Forecasts of rain for winter wheat growing areas in the USA, where dry conditions are a growing watch point.

However, later in the week, prices recovered as the geopolitical situation and risk aversion took centre stage.

Nearby Brent crude oil futures lifted 1.0% last week to end Friday at $72.48/barrel. Following the outbreak of conflict between the USA and Iran over the weekend, prices are higher so far today – at midday, the nearby contract was trading above $78/barrel.

This will add volatility to grain prices and will likely remain a key driver in the coming weeks.

Also in France, data on Friday from FranceAgriMer showed the impact on winter crops of the country’s wettest February on average in records back to 1959.

Between 17 and 23 February, the percentage of winter wheat (exc. Durum) rated good or excellent fell from 88% to 84% (73% last year), with a similar picture for winter barley.

Spring barley planting also remained stalled at 32% complete, now behind the five-year average.

Last week was drier, with the forecast remaining more favourable into this week.

Last week, wider European barley export prices continued to be underpinned (IGC) by export demand.

The EU Commission reports that 6.21 Mt of barley passed customs between 1 July and 22 February, with Saudi Arabia (1.38 Mt) and China (0.89 Mt) the top destinations.

The pace is well above (+79%) 2024/25’s pace so far, and January’s forecast of a 17% rise for the full season.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Old crop delivered feed wheat prices generally made small gains last week (Thursday–Thursday), echoing the changes in May-26 UK feed wheat futures. The market was again reported to be relatively quiet for wheat.

Prices for feed wheat to be delivered in May-26 in East Anglia and North Humberside both gained £0.50/t week-on-week.

The May-26 price for East Anglia was reported at £171.50/t, with Avonmouth at £180.00/t and North Humberside at £181.50/t.

Feed wheat for harvest-26 delivery in East Anglia was reported at £169.50/t.

For bread wheat, May-26 delivery in Northants was unchanged week-on-week at £184.00/t. This equates to a £16.00/t premium to May-26 UK feed wheat futures, down from £16.50/t in the week prior. However, there was a rise reported for May-26 delivery prices in the North West.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, May-26 contract, in £/tonne

May-26 Paris rapeseed futures in £/t gained slightly to £426.76/t last week, Friday to Friday (solid blue line with markers in Figure 2).

Despite the decrease in prices in euros over the week, the weaker sterling supported the £/t price. The nearest new resistance level shown is £435/t, as the market has moved above the previous level of £425/t.

The new resistance level in £/t was calculated based on the significant resistance level of €500/t in the Paris futures market, as well as the average parity of sterling against the euro.

The relative strength index (RSI) increased from 63 to 66 Friday to Friday moving closer to the oversold zone (70).

Paris rapeseed futures May-26 ended the week down 0.3% at €487.00/t, while the Nov-26 contract gained 0.6% to €473.75/t. The price difference between the old and new crops has narrowed.

Rapeseed prices were influenced by concerns about the 2026 crop due to weather conditions, as well as by fund positions and technical analysis. Increased geopolitical concerns also played a role.

Over the past week (Friday to Friday), the price of Chicago soyabean oil futures (May-26) increased even higher, rising by 4.3% week on week. The price was boosted by optimism over the demand for US biofuel production and the increasing trend in the price of crude oil futures.

Nearby Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.0% last week to reach $72.48/barrel. However, crude oil prices opened with a strong upside today due to the situation in the Middle East and the ongoing disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.

Further movements in crude oil prices are unpredictable due to ongoing geopolitics and output changes, such as the OPEC+ decision to increase crude oil production from April.     

Chicago soyabean futures and Winnipeg canola futures (May-26) gained over the week (20 to 27 Feb) by 1.5% and 0.2% respectively.

Chicago soyabean futures did not fully reflect the increase in soyabean oil futures because China's demand for US soyabeans needs to be confirmed through actual transactions.

In the USA, net export sales of soyabean for 2025/26 totalled 407.1 Kt for the week ending 19 February, which was near the lower end of analysts’ estimates and almost half the level of the previous week.

Managed money funds increased their net long position in Chicago soyabeans, the highest level in four years at the end of February. At the same time, participants in the market are also focusing on the harvesting campaign in Brazil, where there has been some delay in the pace compared to last year.

Ukraine may harvest less rapeseed in 2026 due to the risk of adverse weather conditions damaging large areas of crops.

The farmers' union UAC forecasts that extreme frosts in January and February could damage up to 300 Kha of the approximately 1.1 M ha of winter rapeseed sown for the 2026 harvest (LSEG).

Expana has slightly decreased its EU rapeseed production forecast for 2026/27 to 20.8 Mt, down from 20.9 Mt the previous month, due to the influence of recent weather on the winter crop.

Some regions experienced cold temperatures and others had wet weather. 

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith in March was reported at £445.50/t in Friday’s survey, with no comparison from the previous week.

Meanwhile, the price of May delivery closed at £446.50/t, £4.00/t lower. The price for November delivery (the 2026 crop) gained £2.50/t to £428.00/t. The price difference between the 2025 and 2026 crops has narrowed. 

These values are based on a survey conducted mid to late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

This Thursday (5 March), AHDB will publish data on the volume of cereals used by the UK human and industrial sectors in January. We will also publish data on the volume of animal feed produced by manufacturers in GB in January.

The JRC MARS Bulletin, which reports on crop development in the EU Member States and several neighbouring countries, will be published later today, 2 March. This report could influence commodity prices, particularly for the 2026 crop.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

n/c: no comparison

unch: no change in price compared to last week

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