Catch up on changing policy and evolving markets: Grain market daily

Thursday, 5 December 2024

Market commentary

  • Global grain markets traded lower yesterday on stronger competition in wheat export markets, plus forecast rain in Argentina, which would improve conditions for growing maize crops. However, losses were limited by data showing poor winter crop conditions in Russia (LSEG).
  • UK feed wheat futures declined yesterday under pressure from global markets and stronger sterling. Both the May-25 and Nov-25 contracts lost £1.60/t yesterday, with the May-25 contract settling at a new contract low of £184.35/t, while the Nov-25 contract closed at £186.35/t.
  • Paris rapeseed futures lost ground after Tuesday’s gains; the May-25 contract lost €1.75/t to €518.25/t, while the Nov-25 contract fell €3.25/t to €471.50/t. Oilseeds markets focused on worries about Chinese imports of soyabeans from the US and canola from Canada. Markets are also awaiting updated Canadian production data later today (5 December).
  • There is potential for some support from veg oil markets, with Malaysian palm oil futures rising in early trades today due to expectations for further falls in stocks.
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Helen Plant

Senior Analyst (Cereals & Oilseeds)

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Catch up on changing policy and evolving markets

A highlight our autumn was AHDB’s ‘Grain market outlook’ when we explored the impact of changes to agricultural policy in England and ‘green’ requirements in Scotland on the cereals and oilseeds sector, plus the latest market developments.  

This year, following your feedback we ran three different events so you could choose the format that suited you best.

All the events were recorded and are now available online. You can now recap on what you heard or enjoy the content and discussion for the first time by following the links below.

Briefing

Held in Birmingham on 5 November, our briefing explored what we think will be the impact of the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) on land use in the UK and the threat to food security will be. In this supply chain focused event, we also considered if the inflation-squeezed agricultural budget was a bigger risk and if the UK needs a land-use framework. Plus, we covered the latest global market developments, looked UK grain and oilseed supply and demand in 2024/25 and beyond. AHDB experts were then joined by Ed Baker from AIC and James Webster-Rusk from The Andersons Centre for a panel discussion.

View market outlook session here.

View the policy focused session and discussions here.

Webinar

The webinar on 7 November looked at the potential profit and downside areas from SFI, the impact of the inflation-squeezed agricultural budget, global markets and UK supply and demand. This ‘bitesize’ event focused on what our growers’ information needs.

View the webinar video here.

Seminar at AgriScot

On 13 November in Edinburgh we hosted our first seminar at AgriScot in collaboration with Boortmalt and Scottish Quality Crops. We looked at the latest market outlook for key Scottish combinable crops and heard Boortmalt’s perspective on whether there is potential for ‘green premiums’ in the future for malting barley. Plus, Scottish Quality Crops talked about the importance of working together to ensure that assurance standards work for all.  

Click here to access AgriScot's Video Hub - then scroll down to the midway down the page, choose ‘seminar 2’ and play the video that looks like below:

Screen shot of the AgriScot website showing the panel ready for AHDB's seminar

Tell us what you think

Many of you let us know what you thought at the time, but if there’s anything else you want to tell us about these events or what we could do for next year, please email Cereals.MI@ahdb.org.uk.


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