Could weather concerns support wheat prices? Grain market daily

• Nov-25 UK feed wheat futures fell £1.55/t yesterday to close at £178.50/t. Domestic futures generally followed the global wheat market
• Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) both decreased by 1.8% and 1.2% respectively. Global wheat futures are under pressure due to improved crop conditions and favourable weather forecasts in the US, as well as higher production estimates in Russia
• Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures gained €3.50/t to €495.00/t, continuing to be supported by concerns over Ukraine’s crop. Meanwhile, Chicago soya bean futures Nov-25 were lower at yesterday’s close

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The approaching wheat harvesting campaign in the Northern Hemisphere is putting pressure on global wheat prices. Generally speaking, this year's wheat crop appears to be in better condition than last year's in the US and EU (USDA, FranceAgriMer).

However, according to last week's AMIS Crop Monitor, some regions were at risk of adverse weather conditions as of 28 May. Market participants are paying close attention to northern and central Europe, China, Turkey and the Black Sea region and Australia.

The EU and the Black Sea region are important because of their potential for wheat exports. Meanwhile, China and Turkey are of interest due to their potential for increasing wheat imports.

Indeed, the last week's report from FranceAgriMer showed a decrease in soft wheat crop conditions in France, though they are still higher than last year's historically unfavourable conditions.

Conversely, yesterday's USDA crop progress report showed an improvement in winter and spring wheat crops conditions, with more crops rated as 'good' or 'excellent' as of 8 June compared to the previous week.

For now, global market participants seem to be feeling more optimistic about weather-related concerns, as evidenced by the recent downward pressure on wheat prices. The funds have a large net short position in both Chicago and Paris wheat futures. Net short positions are generally used by the funds to profit from falling markets.

Domestic feed wheat futures Nov-25  have been in a downward trend since February 2025 due to the pressure in global markets.

Looking ahead

Although the upcoming harvesting campaign in the Northern Hemisphere is currently putting pressure on the market, weather forecasts for the next month are an important factor to watch.  

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