Domestic milling wheat premiums remain steady: Grain market daily

• Nov-25 UK feed wheat futures fell £3.60/t yesterday to close at £180.15/t.
• Domestic wheat markets tracked declines in global markets, which were under pressure from beneficial rains in US and parts of Europe, competitive pricing from the Black Sea region, and a stronger US dollar. Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) both dropped 2.3%.
• Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures fell €1.75/t (-0.4%) to €490.25/t, while Winnipeg canola futures (Nov-25) rose by 0.9% on yesterday’s close. Compared to the grain market, the oilseed markets were not so volatile yesterday.

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Global wheat futures have declined in recent weeks, driven by improved weather, weak demand, currency shifts, and geopolitical uncertainty. UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) have fallen 2% since early May, while domestic milling wheat prices have remained stable but are lower than earlier in the year and compared to recent years.

As at 22 May, the premium for delivered North West (NW) milling wheat (November delivery) over Nov-25 UK feed wheat futures is £51.05/t. This is significantly lower than the £81.80/t premium recorded on 09 May last year. These are among the lowest premiums for this time of year since 2021.

However, it is important to consider that fertiliser prices are significantly higher now than they were in 2021, due to inflation and elevated natural gas costs following the war in Ukraine. For context, UK-produced Ammonium Nitrate (34.5% N) averaged £383/t in April, £102/t higher than in April 2021. Read more on recent fertiliser prices and the natural gas outlook.

Spring has brought extremely dry conditions across much of the UK, according to  AHDB’s April crop development report, which could limit ammonium nitrate uptake due to the lack of moisture. This mirrors 2022, when dry spring weather was linked to reduced nitrogen levels in Group 1 milling varieties. However, 2017 saw a different outcome despite similar dryness, suggesting other factors may still support quality.

What could influence premiums going forward?

The AHDB’s Early Bird Survey (Nov) forecasts a 5% year-on-year increase in total UK wheat area, though the milling and feed split remains unclear. The Planting and Variety Survey due out in mid-June will provide more detail. Also, crop conditions are generally positive with low disease pressure, although the dry conditions are beginning to affect crop development and yellow rust and gout fly damage in winter wheat could affect milling quality. The next AHDB crop development report is due 30 May.

In addition, wheat area is expected to rise in key countries importing to the UK. Germany’s soft wheat area is forecast to grow 11% in 2025 (EU Commission), though drought concerns remain. Canada’s wheat area is set to increase 3% (Statistic Canada), with spring wheat planting in Saskatchewan (the largest wheat growing area in Canada) at 80% complete as at 19 May.

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