Dryness in focus for UK crops: Grain market daily

• New crop UK feed wheat futures all closed unchanged yesterday, with the Nov-25 contract at £183.00/t. Old crop prices declined further; the May-25 contract lost £1.65/t to settle at £160.00/t
• New crop Chicago wheat futures (Dec-25) were also unchanged after recent falls, while the Paris futures markets (wheat, maize and rapeseed) were all closed for the 1 May holiday
• Winnipeg canola futures edged up yesterday, supported by higher crude oil and soy oil prices, plus stronger demand for Canadian canola
• French winter wheat and barley crop conditions scores were stable between 21 and 28 April, though spring barley conditions dipped slightly (FranceAgriMer). By 28 April, 62% of maize had been planted. Markets will be looking at next week’s report for any impacts from hot weather this week

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2025 had arguably the best spring planting window in recent years according to the latest AHDB crop development report, though crop growth is now in focus.

The Met Office estimates that just over half (56%) of usual rainfall fell in April, with temperatures also well above average. This weather helped spring cereal planting wrap up quickly this year and only a few crops were left to emerge at the end of April.

However, the weather is now beginning to affect both spring and winter crop development. Many spring barley crops emerged stressed.

Rain in mid-April benefited those crops that received it and encouraged winter crop growth, which had stalled. Some winter barley is now well ahead of its usual growth stage.

But there was large variation in the rainfall received across the UK.

Control of weeds in some winter cereals has become more difficult due to the dry conditions. Disease pressure remains low in general, though for winter wheat, yellow rust is becoming more frequent and there is notable gout fly damage.

Winter cereal condition scores dip

The condition of winter cereals dipped between the end of March and April, though they remain much better than last year. The proportion of winter wheat in good or excellent condition declined the most over the month, moving from 67% to 60%, but is still well above the 45% at this stage last year. There were much smaller declines for winter barley and winter oats.

In contrast, the condition of winter oilseed rape improved slightly, rising from 57% in good or excellent condition at end-March to 59% now. While better than last year’s 47%, conditions are still below April 2023 (66%) and April 2022 (70%).

It’s also worth noting that some poorer crops have reportedly been kept in England due to the closure of the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) to new applicants.

Looking ahead

Overall, prospects for winter crops remain encouraging compared to last year though not as strong as in 2023 or 2022. Initial condition scores for spring cereals also look hopeful but comparisons are not available due to the more rapid planting than in recent years.

We will need to watch the weather conditions in the coming weeks. Our next report is scheduled for release on Friday 30 May.

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