EU restrictions on Brazilian beef exports: what could it mean for the UK market?

The European Union (EU) has formally adopted measures that will remove Brazil from the list of approved exporters for a number of animal products, including beef and poultry, from 3 September 2026. The decision is linked to antimicrobial use in livestock production rather than animal disease or animal health concerns.

For the beef sector, the key question is what happens to product currently destined for the EU if access is restricted. Brazil is one of the world's largest beef exporters, and any displacement of product from the EU market could have implications for global trade flows and potentially for the UK market.

Key points

• The EU imported more than 83,000 tonnes of Brazilian fresh & frozen beef in 2025, compared with UK imports of just under 12,000 tonnes
• Brazilian exporters already appear willing to supply the EU outside preferential quota arrangements and pay the associated tariff
• UK and EU out-of-quota tariffs on Brazilian beef are broadly comparable, reducing the tariff disadvantage of redirecting product to the UK. (Although EU prices are higher)
• China remains Brazil's largest export market but has introduced a “safeguard” quota system which limits its ability to absorb additional displaced volumes
• If EU access is restricted, some product could be diverted to alternative destinations including China, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and the UK
• Even relatively small increases in Brazilian imports could increase competitive pressure on the UK beef market
• The ultimate impact will depend partly on whether the UK aligns with any EU restrictions through future SPS cooperation arrangements

Brazil's importance in the UK and EU beef market

Brazil exports considerably more beef to the EU than to the UK.

While UK imports have increased in recent years, they remain relatively small compared with volumes entering the EU.

This means that if access to the EU market were restricted, only a proportion of displaced product would need to be redirected to materially affect UK import volumes.

Table 1. Brazilian fresh and frozen beef exports to the UK and EU 2024-2025

Source: HMRC, Eurostat. 

Quotas and market access

Brazil currently benefits from preferential access to both UK and EU markets through tariff rate quotas (TRQs).

UK quota access

Brazil has access to a UK WTO beef quota for fresh, chilled and frozen beef of approximately 11,143 tonnes. This quota is open to non-EU countries.

EU quota access

Brazil currently has access to

• The 10,000-tonne Hilton quota for high-quality beef

Upon ratification of the EU/Mercosur FTA it will also have access to:

• A share of the new 99,000-tonne Mercosur beef quota, shared between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay under the EU-Mercosur trade agreement. According to the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (Abiec), Brazil will be entitled to 42% of the new quota (Source: USDA)

Upon ratification, the 20% in quota tariff on the 10,000T Hilton quota will also be eliminated.

Even before the EU/Mercosur FTA was agreed, Brazilian exports to the EU have exceeded the Hilton quota volumes in recent years, suggesting exporters were willing to continue supplying the market outside quota where commercial returns justify paying the higher tariff.

This indicates an ability by Brazil to supply markets despite high tariff barriers if the price paid is attractive enough.

EU tariffs

For Brazilian beef entering the EU outside preferential quota arrangements, the tariff for boneless cuts is generally:

12.8% + €303.4/100kg

• 12.8% ad valorem plus €3,03.4 per tonne (approximately £2,580/t)

UK tariffs

For commonly traded boneless beef products:

• 02013000 (fresh/chilled boneless beef): 12% + £2,530/t

The relatively small difference between UK and EU tariff regimes means that tariffs alone are unlikely to prevent trade diversion to the UK if EU market access becomes unavailable.

Why the EU has been the preferred destination

Although tariffs are broadly comparable, EU import values suggest the bloc remains the more attractive market.

From January to April 2026 the average import value for beef to the EU was £6,400/t and to the UK was £5,685/t.

The EU premium of approximately £715/t indicates that, under normal circumstances, Brazilian exporters can achieve higher returns in the EU market than in the UK.

This helps explain why the EU has remained an important destination despite imports exceeding preferential quota volumes.

Could Brazilian beef be diverted to the UK?

If access to the EU market were restricted, Brazilian exporters would almost certainly seek alternative destinations for displaced product.

Potential outlets include:

• China
• Middle East and North Africa
• Southeast Asia
• United States
• United Kingdom

The UK would likely be considered an attractive option because:

• Market access arrangements are already in place.
• Existing tariff levels are relatively competitive compared with alternative destinations.
• Supply chains and importer relationships are already established.

However, the UK would be one relatively small market with a number of other markets for that product also available to Brazilian exporters.

A complete diversion of EU-bound volumes to the UK is therefore unlikely. Nevertheless, even a relatively small proportion of displaced exports could represent a meaningful increase relative to current UK import levels.

Historically, China has been the main destination for Brazilian beef exports. However, China's new safeguard measures may limit its capacity to absorb additional volumes in future.

Brazil now faces:

• A country-specific Chinese quota of around 1.1 million tonnes
• An additional 55% tariff on imports above the quota

As a result, Chinese demand may not be able to absorb all the beef displaced from other markets in the way it has during previous trade disruptions. This potentially increases the likelihood that exporters will seek alternative destinations, including the UK.

Other major importing markets have their own tariff and quota limitations as shown in table 2. Given the relatively high over-quota tariffs in China and the USA, the UK may become a comparatively attractive destination for some exporters if EU access is curtailed.

Table 2. Quotas and tariffs for major beef importing markets

Will the UK follow the EU?

A major uncertainty is whether the UK adopts a similar position to the EU.

The UK is currently pursuing closer SPS cooperation with the EU, raising the possibility that future UK policy could align with EU measures relating to antimicrobial standards.

If the UK introduces equivalent restrictions, opportunities for diversion would be limited. If it does not, Brazilian exporters may view the UK as one of the more attractive alternative outlets available.

The duration of any restrictions will also be important. If Brazil can demonstrate compliance relatively quickly, any disruption to trade flows may be temporary. If restrictions remain in place for an extended period, more permanent adjustments to global trade patterns could emerge.

AHDB assessment of the potential impacts

At present, the evidence suggests that Brazilian exporters could economically redirect at least some product to the UK if access to the EU were restricted. UK and EU tariff barriers are broadly similar, and Brazilian exporters already appear willing to supply high-value markets outside quota arrangements when returns justify doing so.

However, any displacement would not be expected to flow exclusively to the UK. Product would likely be spread across a range of alternative destinations, including China, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

Despite this, the UK's relatively small import market means that even modest increases in Brazilian imports could increase competitive pressure on domestic beef producers and potentially influence market returns. The extent of any impact will depend on the final scope of EU measures, Brazil's ability to regain compliance, and whether the UK chooses to implement similar restrictions.