GB milk deliveries: May volumes lowest in 8 years

Total milk deliveries for the month are estimated at 1,127 million litres, 1.2% below the same month in 2023 and the lowest May milk volume recorded since 2016. Average daily deliveries are estimated at 36.35 million litres with the peak day arriving on 12 May, recording 37.34 million litres.

The latest BCMS population update shows that the GB milking herd remains flat year on year, indicating that lower volumes have come as a result of lower yields per cow.

Prolonged wet conditions not only held back cow turnout but have also delayed grass growth. Looking at peak growth, although this was down year on year, it was higher than the 5-year average, likely due to a break in the weather causing grass growth to shoot up in the early part of the month. See the latest grass growth data visualized on the Forage for Knowledge webpage. Though silage season is now well underway, the slower start may well put pressure on forage supplies later in the year. Paired alongside this, hay and straw prices are currently sitting at a record high and farmers will be hoping the weather picks up in time for harvest after last year’s damp summer.

Wholesale dairy product prices recorded an uplift during the latter half of May, as the extent of lower milk volumes were revealed. This has more recently resulted in most key milk buyers announcing price increases, with June milk prices trending upwards and July looking more positive. With tight supplies in the market any changes in milk or dairy product demand will likely add pressure to pricing.

We will up be updating our 2024/25 milk production forecast later this month (June) to see how the latest data impacts the industry outlook.

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