GB milk deliveries: Milk volumes see further contraction

Key points:

• GB milk deliveries fell an estimated 4.5% in August year-on-year
• Challenging weather held back yields
• Forage growth and the spread of Bluetongue virus remains a concern

Daily deliveries in August averaged 32.0m litres and totalled an estimated 992m litres, a reduction of 46m litres (-4.5%) compared to the previous year. This brings the milk year to date (April-August) supplies for GB to 2.5% below 2025 levels. In the calendar year till date (Jan -Aug), milk deliveries are down 0.5% year-on-year.

August daily deliveries began under last year’s levels before falling sharply in the second and the third week of the month.

Production was severely impacted by the extreme hot weather around mid-month with yields dropping due to heat stressed cows.

The most recent week of data (week ending 29^th August) showed a 3.9% decline on year-ago levels, finishing just below the five-year average. Some rain and lower temperatures in the last week of the month helped yields.

Milk contracts continued the upward momentum in September with more positive announcements for October as processors are anxious to secure future supplies.

Despite the recent increase in prices, they will remain below cost of production for many contracts.

AHDB’s Forage for Knowledge shows grass growth below the 5-year average with significant variation between regions with some regions having recorded no growth. Scotland and parts of the North have been much less impacted by heat and drought.

Forage availability in winter will be impacted following extreme temperatures and many have already started using winter feed.

The GB milking herd continues to decline with the lowest level on record. The latest BCMS figures show that the GB dairy herd contracted 2.2% in the 12 months ending 1 July 2026.

The spread of bluetongue across England, Wales and southern Scotland has intensified increasing concerns for the livestock sector. As such, it will remain a key watchpoint for the dairy sector with the potential of reducing milk production further.

Figure 1. GB daily milk deliveries (m litres per day, seven-day rolling average)

Source: AHDB

Line graph shows GB daily milk deliveries over time that rise in the spring flush and then fall before rising through the autumn. The graph shows that in August the 2026/27 line (in light blue) continues to fall from the 2025/26 line (in navy blue) and remains similar to the five-year average (in brown). 

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