GB milk deliveries: The taps turning off in May?

Key points:

• GB daily deliveries fell by an estimated 0.9% in May compared to the previous year
• There was a marked downturn in the last week of the period by 2.1%
• Farmers are experiencing lower milk prices and increasing input costs producing pressure on margins
• Heat stress may also have been a factor mid-month

Milk supplies in GB look to be slowing down with a downturn in both months of the new milk year so far.  Daily deliveries in May averaged 37.78 million and totalled an estimated 1,171m litres for the month, a reduction of 11m litres (-0.9%) compared to the previous year and a deceleration from the -0.1% observed in April. 

A pronounced drop off towards the end of the period (-2.1% in the last week) is probably a reflection of volume management measures including AB pricing taken by some processors with some indications of milk disposals towards the end of the month. 

This pulls calendar year to date (2026) milk supplies for GB to 1.6% growth, year on year. 

A reduction in volumes was predicted with the milk to feed price ratio falling into the stabilisation zone due to lowering milk prices.  Sales of dairy compound feeds in March also dropped below the 5-year average for the first time in over a year suggesting that farmers are pulling back on production plans.

We have also seen some contraction in the national herd numbers with latest BCMS figures showing a reduction in cow numbers in the milking herd of 2.0%.  Falling beef prices could trigger a short-term increase in culling but heifer replacement availability is becoming a growing concern. 

Although grass growing conditions have largely been favourable with a mixture of sun and moisture, a heat wave in the middle of the month will have held back grass growth for some and caused a degree of heat stress for cows in many parts of the country. 

Farmers are currently experiencing heightened margin pressures with steep increases in input costs including fuel, fertiliser and plastics due to the war in Iran, but also growth in costs including labour and forage. 

There is a risk of an increased number of sector exits as this pressure increases which could raise questions for security of supply later in the year.

Bearing these factors in mind AHDB will be revising our production forecast later this month. 

 Figure 1. GB daily milk deliveries (m litres per day, seven-day rolling average

 Source: AHDB

Line graph shows GB daily milk deliveries over time that rise in the Spring flush and then fall before rising through the Autumn. The graph shows that in May the 2026/27 line (in light blue) falls from tracking the 2025/26 line (in navy blue) to approach the 5 year average (in brown) at the bottom. 

Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB.