H1 2026 dairy trade review: exports of milk powders and cheese at an all-time high

Key trends

• Total UK dairy export volume for H1 2026 declined by 11% to 613,500 tonnes and value declined by 12% to £973m
• Cheese exports continued to grow and touched an all-time high at 116,300 tonnes
• The decline in exports was mainly driven by milk/cream and whey
• Dairy export value declined across all categories except powders and yogurt

Cheese and powders volumes boomed whilst total UK dairy exports declined

Milk powders saw the biggest half yearly volume increase of 23,000 tonnes (33.1%) at 92,500 tonnes, which is an all-time high. It was mostly bound for EU nations (Germany, Italy, the Netherlands). It also increased to some non-EU nations (Libya, Bangladesh, Egypt).

Export volumes of cheese and curd also followed suit, recording an all-time high at 116,000 tonnes (15.4%). Growth in exports was reported to EU nations (Belgium, France, the Netherlands) and non-EU nations (Libya, Bahrain, China and Saudi Arabia).

Exports of butter and yogurt increased by 2,700 tonnes (+11.0%) and 2,600 tonnes (12.4%) respectively during the period.

However, half-yearly increase in exports of all these products was outweighed by a significant decline in exports of milk and cream (-114,000 tonnes) and to a marginal extent, whey (-5000 tonnes).

Exports to the EU (that make up 86% of total dairy exports) declined by 86,000 tonnes (-14.0%). In the EU, losses in exports were reported from Ireland (-119,000 tonnes), Sweden (-1,200 tonnes) which masked an increase in exports to the Netherlands (+20,500 tonnes), Germany (+2,900 tonnes), Denmark (+2,700 tonnes), Belgium (+2,300 tonnes), Spain (+1,500 tonnes) and France (+1,100 tonnes). The export figures include milk that crosses the Northern Irish border for processing in the Republic of Ireland.

A decline in exports was also reported from non-EU nations: Morocco (-2,600 tonnes), New Zealand (-2,100 tonnes), Pakistan (-1,900 tonnes), Algeria (-1,800 tonnes) and the United States (-1,100 tonnes)

The value of dairy exports declined after two years of growth, partially due to falling commodity prices.

In H1 2026, a decline in the value of exports was witnessed across all categories except powders and yogurt. The decline in value was led by milk and cream (-38.6%), followed by butter (-27.3%), cheese and curd (-4.6%) and whey (-8.5%). The highest value was recorded for the exports of cheese and curd at £461m followed by milk and cream at £157m and by milk powders at £147m.

Imports fell slightly

Total import volumes in H1 2026 are marginally down below 1,000 tonnes (-0.15%) from 2025 levels to 636,000 tonnes. This was mainly driven by decline in imports of milk and cream, whey, and butter. Imports of milk and cream declined by 17,300 tonnes (-13.3%) followed by whey with a decline of 4,700 tonnes (-11%) and butter with 4,000 tonnes decline (-12.1%).

This outweighed an increase in imports of yogurt by 14,500 tonnes (+9.3%), cheese by 7,800 tonnes (+3.4%) and powders by 2,700 tonnes (+6.2%). In terms of value, the greatest contributors were cheese and curd and yogurt totalling £1,090m and £324m respectively.

The decline in imports was mainly reported from EU nations (-4,000 tonnes), which comprise of the majority of our imports. Major EU nations contributing to the decline are Ireland (-21,000 tonnes), the Netherlands (-4,500 tonnes), Germany (-1,800 tonnes) and Belgium (-1,500 tonnes). In terms of value, imports totalled at £1.8bn (-0.9%) compared to H1 2025.

There had been a surge in imports from New Zealand during last two years. However, in H1 2026, overall imports from New Zealand declined by 1,100 tonnes (-8.5%) compared to the same period in the previous year as their products were less competitive. The imports mainly comprised of cheese and butter.

Figure 1. Half-yearly change in UK dairy trade volumes, 2026 vs 2025 

Source: HMRC compiled by Trade Data Monitor LLC

Figure 1 bar chart compares UK dairy export and import volumes (in thousand tonnes) across six product categories for H1 2025 and H1 2026. Each category shows two bars: blue for change in import volumes and dark blue for change in export volumes. Exports of powdered and condensed milk, yogurt, butter and cheese increased in H1 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, Imports of powdered and condensed milk, yogurt and cheese increased in H1 2026 compared to the same period in 2025 while that of milk and cream, whey and butter declined.

Road ahead

Despite an overall decline in dairy exports, cheese exports have recorded an all-time high, emphasizing the continued strength of this category in global markets.

Alongside cheese, powders also recorded an all-time high.

The exports team at AHDB has been organising events and attending trade shows through 2026 promoting British dairy around the world.

Asia and Middle East are a key focus of AHDB’s export strategy and despite conflict in the Middle East, exports increased in this region. We need to closely watch trade developments between different countries and geopolitical factors, which will shape up the future trajectory.

N.B. The milk powders category mentioned above includes all codes in 0402 including 040210, 040221, 040229, 040291, 040299 which includes milk powders as well as condensed and evaporated milk although the code is dominated my milk powders.

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