Ireland update: Milk volumes mirror GB trends

• The Republic of Ireland’s milk production tipped into year-on-year decline from April but remains above 2024.
• Lower milk prices and high input costs are putting pressure on margins.
• Exports remained buoyant in Q1.

Similarly to GB, Irish milk volumes tipped into year-on-year decline in April 2026 (-3.4%), in comparison to a large 2025 base, according to figures published by CLAL. A drop in farmgate milk prices has weighed on producer margins.

Irish milk volumes since fell by 1.5% in May. The cumulative calendar year so far (Jan-May) now runs 0.6% behind last year, but 6.9% above 2024.

Figure 1. Republic of Ireland milk deliveries (million tonnes per month)

Source: CLAL

Bar graph shows Republic of Ireland milk deliveries per month from January 2024 to May 2026. The light blue bars represent 2024, green bars represent 2025 and dark blue bars represent 2026 volumes.

Alongside the significant cut to average milk prices towards the end of 2025, input pressures have heightened. In particular, fuel costs, with shortages driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Fuel protests across Ireland in April led to further disruption, reportedly affecting feed supplies and milk collections. A fuel subsidy has since been arranged for farmers, covering the months of March to July to reduce some of the impact.

Teagasc expect the average milk prices for 2026 to be 20% below 2025 averages, having a large hit on dairy farm incomes. The outlook for 2026 (published in December 2025) forecast Irish milk production to remain broadly unchanged from 2025 volumes.

Latest announced milk prices in Ireland look to show tentative signs of improving, but remain at challenging levels.

Temperatures have been above summer norms, but heat stress has been less severe than in GB. However, with rainfall also having been low and Ireland dairy particularly reliant on grass-based systems, this is likely to be affecting supplies, and therefore milk production.

On the positive side for producers, firm beef prices are likely to continue to support overall profitability.

Impact on Europe

Ireland is a significant player in the European dairy market, accounting for 6.3% of EU dairy export volume in 2025 and is a significant exporters to the UK market. Therefore, changes in production have knock on effects to broader market dynamics. In Q1 2026, dairy export volume from Ireland rose by 36% year-on-year, primarily from increases to Vietnam, the USA and Egypt.

Although uncertainty remains around the geopolitical situation, Ireland has received some relief on environmental restraints, having been granted nitrates derogation for another 3 years.

The wider picture in Europe and globally for dairy is still overproduction. The latest EU Commission Short Term Outlook estimates 1.6% growth for the 2026 year as a whole. Growth is forecast to slow in the latter months but will have to be significant for the market to rebalance.

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