Mid-week market update: Grain market daily

• Nov-25 UK feed wheat futures fell £0.10/t yesterday, closing at £175.15/t. The May-26 contract dropped by the same amount to close at £187.15/t. Domestic prices followed European trends, with Paris milling wheat (Dec-25) down 0.4%.
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) slipped €0.75/t yesterday to close at €481.75/t. This decline was mainly driven by strength in the euro against the US dollar (more details below). Meanwhile, Dec-25 Chicago soyabean oil futures rose by 1.8%.

Sign up to receive the Weekly Market Report and Grain Market Daily from AHDB.

UK wheat prices have continued to ease as of late, following the pattern seen in global markets. So far this week (Mon–Tue), global prices have been mixed, with Paris futures dropping and Chicago futures climbing, due to sharp currency movements.

Yesterday, the euro hit its highest level against the US dollar since September 2021, trading at €1 = $1.1805. This rise follows ongoing uncertainty over potential interest rate cuts in the US, as well as President Trumps tax-and-spending bill which is now awaiting final approval (LSEG). As a result, EU wheat exports are pricing less competitively, putting further pressure on Paris milling wheat futures. The Dec-25 contract dropped to €205.75/t at yesterday’s close, its lowest level since January 2023.

Despite these currency shifts, other key drivers include heavier US wheat stocks, harvest pressure, and weak export demand.

Larger stocks and stable plantings in the US

On Monday, the USDA released its US quarterly grain stocks and acreage reports. Wheat stocks in the US were estimated at 23.16 Mt as at 1 June, up 22% compared to the same time last year and 2% above the average analyst estimate.

Meanwhile, the planted area for the 2025 wheat harvest came in at 18.41 Mha, slightly above analyst expectations. Read more on this in yesterday’s Grain market daily.

Harvest pressure

Harvest is picking up pace across the Northern Hemisphere. In the US, the winter wheat harvest started in June and was 37% complete by 29 June, according to the USDA. Harvest is also underway in Europe, with recent warm and dry conditions helping farmers get off to a good start.

In terms of the latest outlook, global wheat production is forecast to rise. The USDA projects output at 808.6 Mt, up 8.7 Mt from last year, IGC offers a slightly lower estimate of 807.9 Mt, an increase of 2.3 Mt year-on-year from its year earlier figure.

Sluggish demand

Global wheat export demand remains subdued due to slowing economic growth among key importers. Ukraine’s Agricultural Ministry has reported 2024/25 wheat exports at 15.7 Mt, below the 16.2 Mt quota and down from 18.5 Mt in 2023/24. Meanwhile, EU Commission data released yesterday showed EU soft wheat exports for 2024/25 at 20.19 Mt as at 29 June, down from 31.07 Mt a year earlier. This slowdown adds to the overall bearish sentiment, as weaker export demand continues to put downward pressure on prices.

Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB.

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.