Mid-week market update: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) rose by £1.00/t (0.6%) yesterday, closing at £180.00/t. The May-26 contract fell £0.50/t (0.3%) to finish at £190.80/t
• Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) rose 1.1% and 0.2% respectively yesterday. News that production and exports in Russia were lower than expected supported wheat futures (see more on this below)
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) rose by €0.50/t to close at €481.25/t, while Dec-25 Chicago soyabean and Nov-25 Winnipeg canola futures fell by 0.1% and 0.6% respectively. The global oilseeds market has seen less volatility in terms of tariff concerns and unpredictability more recently

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The overall sentiment in grain markets remains bearish due to the ongoing harvesting campaign in the Northern Hemisphere.

However, focus is also on the condition of spring crops as they continue to develop.

Harvesting campaign in the Northern Hemisphere

As of 20 July, 73% of US winter wheat had been harvested, which was an increase on the previous week's figure of 63%, and in line with the five-year average of 72%.

FranceAgriMer reported that as of 14 July, the pace of the wheat and barley harvest was well ahead of last year, and the five-year average for the same period. This is putting pressure on Paris grain futures.

In contrast, the harvesting campaign in the Black Sea region is running behind last year’s pace. As of 18 July, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 4.67 Mt of wheat, compared to 10.34 Mt at the same point last year.

The Russian Minister of Agriculture announced cuts yesterday to wheat production and export estimates, now at 88–90 Mt and 43–44 Mt respectively, due to drought in certain regions.

Wheat exported during this harvest period is a key factor in determining global prices. However, the pace from the EU and the Black Sea region is currently below last year's figures, while US exports are in line with last year's and the five-year average.

Spring crop conditions in focus

As of 20 July, 52% of the US spring wheat crop was rated as being in good to excellent condition, down from 54% the previous week and down from 77% a year earlier.

Meanwhile, the USDA rated 74% of the US maize crop as being in good to excellent condition, the highest rating for this point in the year since 2016.

On Monday, in its latest MARS report, the EU Commission decreased its yield estimates for maize by 4%, sunflowers by 8%, and soybeans by 7%, compared to June estimates.

Looking ahead

To support prices, the global wheat market requires an increased export rate for the 2025 crop due to harvesting pressures in the Northern Hemisphere.

In the near term, the market will be paying close attention to spring crops in the US and EU, especially maize.

As harvest progresses, we will gain a clearer picture of global and domestic supply this season, and what this could mean for UK prices longer term.

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