Mid-week market update: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-25) closed yesterday’s session at £169.55/t, down £3.40/t from Monday’s close. The Nov-25 contract settled at £185.35/t, down £1.50/t over the same period. Domestic markets followed Chicago and Paris futures yesterday.
• Rain forecast in the US, currency swings and supply pressure are all influencing price direction this week. Find out more below.
• May-25 Paris rapeseed futures gained €11.50/t to close at €544.75/t yesterday. The Nov-25 contract was up €9.00/t over the same period, settling at €482.00/t.
• While Chicago soyabean futures lost ground yesterday, Paris rapeseed futures found support from rising Chicago soyaoil markets and a weakening euro. According to latest data from NOPA, while a pre report poll suggested a rise in stocks, US stocks of soyaoil declined for the first time in six months in March, lending support to soyaoil markets (LSEG).

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Old crop (May-25) UK feed wheat futures closed back below £170/t yesterday, as currency fluctuations, improving crop prospects and supply pressures all weigh on markets.

Below we explore what has been driving prices and what to look out for going forward.

Crop condition

Arguably, the prospects of improving weather in the US has been one of the largest bearish factors on markets this week.

The USDA reported that 47% of US winter wheat was in good or excellent condition as at 13 April, down from 48% a week earlier, with around 32% of the winter wheat area being impacted by drought as at 8 April. However, weather forecasts are predicting beneficial rains in the US wheat belt next week. These forecast rains have weighed down on global wheat markets.

Beneficial rains are also forecast in key European cropping regions of France and Germany.

Currency fluctuations

As well as the prospects of improving US conditions, fluctuations in currency, following Trumps tariffs, is also having its impact on markets. While May-25 Chicago wheat futures closed down by 1% yesterday, May-25 UK feed wheat futures lost nearly 2% on the day. The larger drop in UK prices is partly due to sterling strengthening against the US dollar. Volatility in currency is likely to remain as the US tariff situation continues to unfold.

Supply pressure

European wheat markets have also felt the pressure this week from competitive Russian exports. Improved weather in Russia alleviated some concerns around new crop, pushing export prices lower. However, the actual condition of the Russian crop remains a key watch point, given the prolonged period of drought some key growing regions have experienced.

On the supply side, France’s farm ministry estimates the 2025 soft wheat area at 4.63 Mha, up 10% from 2024 and slightly above the five-year average.            

The news of a bumper wheat crop from Argentina has also added pressure this week. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange is projecting that Argentina's 2025/26 wheat harvest will hit 20.5 Mt, which would be a 10% increase from last year. This boost is due to favourable weather and lower production costs. The Exchange has suggested that output could be even higher if Argentina’s export tax cut is extended beyond the end of June (LSEG).

What next?

While US tariffs are still in the picture, especially because of its impact on currency and trade flows, as always at this time of year, market attention is on weather and crop conditions. US and Russian crop conditions remain a key watch point for markets and price movements. If the much anticipated rains do not come to the US, or do not provide adequate moisture we could well see some support to markets.

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