Weather hits 2025 English cereal output: Analyst insight

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) gained £0.60/t yesterday to close at £165.55/t. Movements for further forward months were more muted, with the May-26 contract up £0.20/t at £175.85/t, while Nov-26 contract declined by £0.85/t. Support for near-term contracts was partly driven by a weaker pound, as sterling fell by 0.2% against the US dollar yesterday (LSEG).
• Globally, ample wheat supplies continued to cap any significant price gains. Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) each rose by 0.1%. The Rosario Stock Exchange increased Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat production estimate to 23 Mt, up from 20 Mt+ previously, as yield prospects are supported by abundant soil moisture.
• The wheat export pace remains slow from the Black Sea region. According to the Ukrainian government, the country has exported 4.98 Mt of wheat so far this season (01 July–08 October), down from 6.80 Mt at the same stage last year amid ongoing market uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Russian government has cut the wheat export duty by 20% for 08–14 October to try to support higher export volumes.
• Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures fell €0.50/t to settle at €466.25/t. Meanwhile, Chicago soyabean and Winnipeg canola futures (Nov-25) increased by 0.7% and 0.3% respectively. The broader oilseeds complex continued to show strength, supported by rising crude oil prices and stronger palm oil values.

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Earlier today, Defra released its first estimates of cereal (wheat, barley and oats) and oilseed rape production in England from the 2025 harvest.

Figures for Scotland are expected from the Scottish Government next week (16 October), while those for Northern Ireland and Wales will follow in December, when Defra also publishes the UK totals.

Total cereals (wheat, barley and oat) output is provisionally down in 2025 due to extremely challenging weather conditions faced, with a fall in barley output offsetting a small rise for wheat. The table below summarises the data from this morning’s release.

Wheat

England’s wheat production for 2025 is provisionally estimated at 10.6 Mt, up 5% on the year by Defra. But it still around 17% below the ten-year average of 12.9 Mt, which has ranged from a high of 15.2 Mt in 2015 to a low of 8.7 Mt in 2020. The increase this year is largely due to a 9% rise in cropped area, following a challenging 2024 season when wet weather limited autumn sowing.

English wheat yields in 2025 are provisionally estimated at 7.0 t/ha, a slight drop from 7.2 t/ha last year and the lowest yield since 2020 (6.9t/ha). Growers faced an extremely challenging season, with a wet autumn followed by a dry spring and summer, making crop management particularly tricky.

Regionally, the strongest wheat output remains in the East and East Midlands, producing 3.0 Mt and 2.0 Mt, respectively. Most English regions provisionally saw higher output than last year, due to larger areas. The exceptions are the East and South West, which recorded declines of 1% and 5% respectively due to larger yield declines.

Barley

Defra provisionally estimates that English barley production will fall sharply compared with last year. Total output is estimated at 4.2 Mt, down 14% on 2024 and 19% below the ten-year average. This would make it the lowest English barley harvest since 2012.

Winter barley output has fallen modestly, by 2%, to 2.0 Mt, as a reduction in area more than offsets improved yields in Northern England and the Midlands. Meanwhile, spring barley production has provisionally fallen 23% year-on-year to 2.2 Mt, due to lower yields across most regions. The English spring barley crop is also 18% below the ten-year average.

Oats

The 2025 English oat harvest is provisionally estimated to fall slightly by 2% year-on-year to 755 Kt. But it remains just above the ten-year average of 720 Kt, keeping it among the larger oat crops of the twenty-first century. Yields are down across most regions, with production increasing year-on-year only in Northern England.

Oilseed rape

Despite the lowest planted area in recent years, oilseed rape production in England is estimated to rise in 2025, up 6% on 2024 to 722 Kha, driven by a 29% increase in yields. However, production remains well below historical levels, at only half the ten-year average of 1.4 Mt.

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