Natural gas prices are rising again: Grain market daily

• Nov-25 UK feed wheat futures fell £1.25/t yesterday to close at £185.45/t
• Domestic wheat markets tracked declines in global markets as earlier gains from short covering by speculative traders faded. Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) dropped 0.4% and 0.9% respectively
• Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures rose €4.50/t (+0.9%) to €493.00/t, following US soyabean prices up yesterday. Chicago soyabean futures (Nov-25) rose by 0.3% on technical buying ahead of the upcoming holiday weekend

Sign up to receive the Weekly Market Report and Grain Market Daily from AHDB.

UK natural gas prices have edged higher since our last update in April. Nearby futures closed at 89.1p/therm on 20 May, up 5.5p/therm from 23 April and 12.4p/therm higher than the 76.7p/therm recorded a year ago. Although prices eased slightly to 86.8p/therm by yesterday’s close, they remain elevated compared to last year.

Gas prices are climbing due to tighter supplies and rising demand from forecast cooler weather in northwest Europe. Norway’s gas exports have dropped during plant maintenance, while global LNG competition grows as the EU continues to move away from Russian gas (EU Commission).

This puts pressure on the UK market, which relies on imports and has limited storage. A major worry for UK gas storage is the Rough site, which accounts for about half of the UK’s storage. Operator Centrica has stopped refilling the site due to high costs and is asking for government backing.

Fertiliser price update

Domestic fertiliser prices continued to rise in April, continuing the trend since autumn 2024. In April, UK-produced Ammonium Nitrate (34.5% N) averaged £383/t, £47/t higher than in September 2024 and £46/t more than April 2024’s price of £337/t. The divergence from gas prices suggests a lag in how production costs are reflected in fertiliser pricing.

Looking ahead

Gas market conditions remain tight with EU storage levels below average, limited UK capacity, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Forward gas prices (up to spring 2026) are higher than nearby prices reflecting this situation, though the prices are for next summer currently lower than nearby prices. 

UK feed wheat futures prices for the 2026 crop are nearly £19/t lower than prices for the 2025 crop were at this point last year. So, depending on new season fertiliser prices, careful planning for the 2026 crop could be needed.

The AHDB Nitrogen Fertiliser Calculator can help determine optimal nitrogen application rates for cereal and oilseed crops.

Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB.

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.