Search our website enhanced by Google.
Analyst insight: Provisional UK crop production estimates for 2025
Thursday, 16 October 2025
Market commentary
- UK feed wheat futures fell yesterday, partly due to a stronger sterling against the US dollar and the euro. The Nov-25 contract closed at £164.65/t, down £1.90/t (1.1%) from Tuesday’s close.
- Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) both decreased by 0.3%. Chicago wheat fell on the back of ample global supplies and weak demand in US. However, Chicago maize futures closed higher due to slow farmer sales and short covering in the futures market.
- Paris wheat futures are still under pressure from the highly competitive Black Sea region and US wheat prices, as well as the supply of Argentina's new crop in the coming weeks. FranceAgriMer yesterday lowered its projections for soft wheat, barley and maize stocks at the end of the current 2025/26 season after adjusting export forecasts for the three cereals.
- Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) gained €1.00/t to €466.50/t yesterday. Winnipeg canola futures (Nov-25) also gained yesterday by 0.8%, while Chicago soyabean closed unchanged.
- Soyabeans recovered from earlier declines after the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported stronger-than-expected crushing in the US in September.
Provisional UK crop production estimates for 2025
Following the release of provisional data by Defra for England last week and by the Scottish government for Scotland this morning, we can now provide a first insight into the UK’s 2025 production.
Figures for Northern Ireland and Wales will follow in December, when Defra also publishes the UK totals. Please note that Wales and Northern Ireland have not yet released area and production data. Within this article, it is assumed that these figures are the same as last year.
The provisional figures show higher UK wheat and oilseed rape (OSR) production for harvest 2025, compared to the previous season. Meanwhile, barley production fell. The decrease in spring barley production was particularly notable, due to smaller growing areas and lower yields across most regions.
AHDB will release its first estimates of wheat and barley UK supply and demand for the 2025/26 season later this month. See estimates for past seasons here. Lower stocks at the end of 2024/25 / start of 2025/26 will offset some of the increase in wheat output. However, the level of imports required will also depend on final UK wheat quality and domestic demand levels, which are uncertain largely due to the closure of the Vivergo bioethanol plant.
Lower stocks and quality concerns, especially in Scotland with higher reports of rejections for malting barley, are also likely to tighten barley availability. However, demand so far this season (Jul-Aug), from the brewing, malting and distilling industry has been struggling.
Defra will release final UK production estimates on 11 December.
UK wheat production for 2025 is provisionally estimated at 11.8 Mt, which is an increase of 6.2% compared to the 2024 harvest. However, this figure still is 8% below the five-year average (2020 – 2024).
The North East region of England experienced the most significant proportional increase in wheat production, with a year-on-year gain of 35%, following a drop of 34% in 2024. Yorkshire also saw an increase of 16% for the 2025 harvest compared to the previous year. Scotland saw a significant increase, with production rising by 23%.
There is significant variation in yield estimates for Scotland and the regions of England.
The UK’s total barley production in 2025 is estimated at 6.4 Mt, a 0.7 Mt decrease from the 7.1 Mt harvested in 2024. This figure is also below the five-year average of 7.3 Mt (2020 – 2024). This drop is primarily due to lower area and yields of spring barley.
This is provisionally the smallest UK barley crop since 2012.
Spring barley
The UK’s spring barley crop for 2025 is projected at 3.99 Mt, down 14% compared to the 2024 harvest. This figure also is well below the five-year average (2020 – 2024) of 4.6 Mt.
The spring barley area has seen a notable decrease this year, down 11% compared to 2024.
Winter barley
UK winter barley production for 2025 is provisionally estimated at 2.45 Mt, slightly changed from the 2.44 Mt harvested in 2024, but a 9% drop from the five-year average (2020 – 2024) of 2.7 Mt. Yields were higher across England (5%) and Scotland (15%).
The UK’s oat production for 2025 is provisionally estimated at 986 Kt, only slightly changed from the 2024 harvest and the five-year average.
Production has increased in Scotland, the North East and North West of England. Meanwhile, the South West of England saw a 13% decrease in oat production compared to the 2024 harvest.
UK OSR production for 2024 is provisionally estimated at 892 Kt, a 7% increase from the 835 Kt harvested in 2024. Harvest 2024 was the smallest crop since 1983. The significant decrease in area (-17%) for harvest 2025 was offset by the 29% increase in yield. While the 2025 crop is larger than in 2024, it remains at historically low levels.
Yields were higher than 2024 in North West of England (+145%), North East of England (+76%), and Yorkshire (+53%). Scottish yields are provisionally up 29% at a record 4.66 t/ha.
Scottish production figures are provisionally mostly higher than those for the 2024 harvest and the five-year average for the period 2020–2024. The provisional estimates, based on industry insights, show a good year for winter crops, but a more mixed picture for spring crops. The drought in 2025 impacted spring crop yields and quality and may mean that the availability of Scottish malting barley is lower than the headline figures suggest.
Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB.
While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.
All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.