Q2 2026 EU butter and cheese stocks build up whilst milk powders dwindled

Key trends

• Production growth in the EU boosted butter stocks
• Cheese stocks also rose due to spectacular growth in production and modest increase in imports.
• Supplies of milk powders shrink following large increase in exports

Milk deliveries in the EU continue to trend up and increased by 2.7% in Q2 2026 year-on-year, strengthening the production of dairy products.

Strong growth in exports has limited the build-up of stock levels.

Total dairy exports on the continent picked up by 7.7% in the second quarter year-on-year. Good demand for butter, cheese and milk powders boosted exports during the period mainly from the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries (Egypt, Israel, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Yemen) and Asian countries (Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam).

Butter stocks scaled up

The increase in the available butter supplies in Q2 resulted primarily from higher production in line with higher milk supplies.

This is despite exports growing by a significant 39.7% (28,000 tonnes), which did partially limit stock build up.  

Exports picked to some Asian (China, Indonesia, Malaysia) and MENA nations (Egypt, Israel, Morocco, Saudi Arabia). Available supplies of butter increased 1.4% (7,400 tonnes) year-on-year in Q2 2026.

Cheese supplies continued growth

Cheese supplies were elevated in Q2 following increase in production and higher imports. Along with milk deliveries, milk components also continued to grow thereby boosting higher production.

Exports increased by 6.5% (23,300 tonnes) during the period year-on-year.  Demand grew mainly from MENA (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia) nations and from the United Kingdom.

Available supplies of cheese increased by 2.9% (65,200 tonnes) in the second quarter year-on-year.

Supplies of milk powders dwindled

SMP supplies declined by a significant 20.2% year-on-year in Q2 2026. Production was stable, up by a marginal 0.1% whilst imports declined by 8.4% year-on-year. A sizeable 22.2% growth in exports year-on-year capped off overall supplies.

MENA countries including Egypt, Libya, Oman, Yemen and Asian countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore were the main contributors to the increase.

WMP production increased by 2.2% in Q2 2026 in line with increase in milk deliveries. Exports strengthened in the second quarter following price competitiveness in the global markets compared to US.

Demand increased to MENA and some Asian countries. Available supplies declined by 9% on higher exports during the period.

Figure 1. Year-on-year change in EU dairy product availability (Apr-Jun, 2026 v 2025)

(thousand tonnes)

Source: Eurostat, Trade Data Monitor LLC

¹Available supplies = production + imports - exports

Figure 1 shows available supplies of butter, cheese, SMP and WMP in the second quarter of 2026 compared with same period previous year. Available supplies of butter and cheese have increased while that of SMP and WMP declined.

According to the EU short-term outlook on agricultural commodities, growth in milk production is likely to be restricted in the second half of the year. Despite the expected slowdown, milk availability remains in surplus as we are comparing against a relatively higher production base. The built up in stock levels will depend on demand dynamics in the domestic and export markets.

Looking ahead, the availability of dairy products will also be determined by a range of external factors. Global geopolitical factors, weather and disease outbreak will remain key watchpoints. El Nino expected later in the year will have impact on global milk production.

Bluetongue is spreading widely in the United Kingdom and is likely to lower milk supplies. All these factors will influence trade flows and in turn shape up available supplies of dairy products.

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