Q2 2026 UK dairy product available supplies shrank further

Key trends

• Butter supplies shrank due to lower production and imports and an increase in exports
• Cheese availability tightened with strong export demand and lower production
• Cheese exports increased to the EU, Asia and Oceania, Middle East and North African countries

GB Milk deliveries contracted year-on-year in Q2, leading to lower production of dairy products. Severe heat stress, low forage growth and the emergence of Bluetongue virus in the southwest affected production.

UK milk deliveries in the second quarter of the calendar year (Apr-Jun) totalled 4164 million litres (-1.1%) lower year-on-year, with sharper declines seen in some regions.

Cheese supplies tightened

Cheese supplies have been in the negative territory from beginning this year, after a year of growth in 2025.

Imports increased during the period, but production dwindled following lower milk supplies amid subsequent heat waves in summer.

In addition, strong exports tightened supplies further. Though overall imports increased by 3.6% (4300 tonnes), imports from New Zealand increased by nearly 2600 tonnes although from a low base. Under the UK-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement, New Zealand has improved access for its dairy products.

Exports of cheese have continued to grow since the second quarter of 2025 and recorded an all-time high in Q2 2026 up by 15.3% (+8,000 tonnes) year-on-year.

Globally, the biggest increase in exported cheese volumes were reported to the EU including the Netherlands (+1,800 tonnes), France (+1,600 tonnes), Belgium (+1,000 tonnes), Germany (+600 tonnes), Austria (+300 tonnes), Spain (+300 tonnes), Ireland (+200 tonnes) and Turkey (+200 tonnes).

This was followed by an increase to non-EU nations in Asia including China (+1,000 tonnes), Singapore (+400 tonnes) and North America including Canada (+100 tonnes).

Exports also picked up to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Libya (+1,900 tonnes), Bahrain (+1,400 tonnes), Saudi Arabia (+800 tonnes), Egypt (+200 tonnes) and Sub-Saharan Africa including South Africa (+400 tonnes).

The logistical challenges faced due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East capped the increase in overall exports to the region.

Cheese production declined by 2.3% (-3200 tonnes) in the second quarter of 2026. Imports and exports grew by 3.6% (4300 tonnes) and 15.3% (8000 tonnes) respectively. Available supplies shrank by 3.3% (-6900 tonnes) during the period.

Butter supplies trend down

Butter supplies trended down for another consecutive quarter.

Production declined by 4.3% (-2600 tonnes) in the second quarter year-on-year as economics were not favourable churning cream into butter.

Imports also declined by 8.4% (-1400 tonnes) whilst exports increased by 7% (900 tonnes) during the period. Price competitiveness in the global market supported the increase in exports.

An increase in exports was reported to Australia (+200 tonnes), EU: the Netherlands (+700 tonnes), Germany (+300 tonnes) and Denmark (+200 tonnes), MENA: Libya (+500 tonnes), Egypt (+200 tonnes), Kuwait (+300 tonnes), Saudi Arabia (+200 tonnes), United Arab Emirates (+100 tonnes) and Sub-Saharan Africa including South Africa (+200 tonnes).

Overall higher exports amid lower production and imports led to available supplies declining by 7.6% (-4900 tonnes).

Figure 1. 2026 Q2 (Apr-Jun) Year-on-year change in UK product availability¹ 

Source: Defra, HMRC Compiled by Trade Monitor LLC

1product availability is defined as: production + imports – exports

N.B. – Supplies of milk powders are not available due to lack of data on production issued by Defra

Figure 1 is a bar chart which shows UK availability of butter and cheese in Q2 2026 compared to Q2 2025. The available supplies of both butter and cheese have declined during the period.

Production (light blue bar)
Imports (dark blue bar)

Exports (Green bar)

Available supplies (Dark red bar)

Looking ahead, GB milk production supplies are expected to contract further in the coming months, although the pace of change will depend on what milk prices do as well as the progression and impact of bluetongue, weather challenges and forage availability during the winter months.

The GB milking herd sees lowest level on record limiting supply growth. Lower milk supplies will translate into lower production of dairy products.

Global geopolitical factors will be a key watchpoint with the potential to influence trade flows and shape the balance of dairy product availability.

Rabobank forecasts global milk production growth to moderate to 0.5% year-on-year during the second half 2026. Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, global dairy demand remains resilient supported by good demand from Southeast Asian countries.

In addition, China is also showing signs of revival in demand and imports are expected to strengthen in the coming months. Growth in dairy consumption is primarily driven by protein rich dairy products with consumers preference towards health, nutritional and functional foods.

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