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Rapid decline in milk production slows
Monday, 9 August 2021
By Chris Gooderham
The heatwave across GB came to an end on 24 July, and the latest daily deliveries figures show the impact as cooler weather and rain swept across the country. Average daily milk collections showed a week-on-week drop again for the week ending 31 July. However, the decline of 0.6% was actually a result of how quickly volumes had fallen the week before, rather than a further drop. In fact, the last three days of July showed a slight increase against their comparative days the week before.
GB milk production in July is provisionally estimated to have come out at 1,030m litres, 2.1% below last year and 1.5% below the forecast. Volumes continue to run in line with 2018.
GB organic milk deliveries recorded a similar pattern to the overall volumes. July is estimated at 39m litres, 2.6% below July last year. The latest figures (for w/e 31 July) showed a week-on-week decline of 1.0%. However, having started July above last year, the rapid decline saw volumes sit more than 4% down around the 27 of the month. The final few days saw organic volumes flatten off and they are now estimated to be around 1.7% down compared with the same time last year.
Looking ahead, a further recovery in volumes is expected over the coming week as the full post-heatwave figures flow through. However, the expectation is that milk production will remain under pressure as we move into the autumn. High bought-in feed costs, variable silage quality and high cull cow prices all point towards the potential for lower milk production later in the year.
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