Seasonality in UK feed wheat futures: Grain Market Daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-25) ended yesterday at £174.45/t, down £1.30/t from Monday’s close. The Nov-25 contract fell £2.30/t over the same period, to close at £187.90/t.
• Domestic wheat futures closed lower yesterday following global grain markets. Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures were down 2.0% and 0.9% respectively. US tariffs and responses from China and Canada raise commodity trade concerns.
• May-25 Paris rapeseed futures closed at €511.00/t yesterday, down €16.25/t (3.0%) from Monday’s close. Winnipeg canola futures (May-25) were down 3.8% yesterday, also due to increasing concern over a trade dispute between the US and Canada. Chicago soyabean oil futures fell for the eight consecutive trading session.

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UK feed wheat futures (May-25) have fallen over the last few weeks. A number of factors are currently weighing on the global market, such as the implementation of import tariffs from the US and more favourable weather conditions for Northern Hemisphere and South American crops. But how does recent price direction compare to seasonal trends? And what could this mean for UK growers looking to market their grain? 

Looking at historical trends in the domestic market, it is not abnormal for prices to fall under pressure at this point in the season. In a previous Grain market daily, we explained the tendency for UK feed wheat futures to fall in the first quarter of the calendar year, based on the five-year average. In 2022, we saw an abnormally strong rally in global wheat prices due to significant geopolitical impact. As such, we have excluded the calendar year 2022 from our analysis.

Looking ahead

Price seasonality is a factor to consider when looking at selling strategies. As we can see from the above graph, UK feed wheat futures have some clear seasonality tendency at this point in the marketing year.

Correspondingly, the seasonality of UK feed futures has typically been stable in the second quarter of the calendar year in recent years, of course excluding the 2021/22 season. In 2023/24, UK feed wheat futures showed a tendency to rise after reaching low levels in the first quarter. As such, it’s possible that as we understand more about harvest 25 and head into the new season, we could see some support in prices over the summer should fundamentals allow.

In the new version of our weekly Arable Market Report we now offer other additional tools for technical price analysis, with the aim of aiding grain marketing decisions. 

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