Strong milk supplies persisted in Northern Ireland through summer as prices soften

• Northern Ireland milk production remained strong to the latest available data from Daera, with July 2026 output reaching 244 million litres, up 5% year-on-year and above both 2024, 2025 and the five-year average
• Favourable weather and grazing conditions supported output, with rainfall and sunshine contributing to strong grass growth and forage availability, helping production remain resilient despite lower milk prices
• Northern Ireland producers face greater milk price volatility than their GB counterparts, allowing farmers to benefit more during periods of strong dairy markets but also exposing them to sharper price declines when market conditions weaken

Northern Ireland milk production was strong through the first 7 months of in 2026, with volumes exceeding both 2024 and 2025 levels and sitting well above the five-year average.

Production in July reached 244 million litres, an increase of 5% from the same month in 2025.

Figure 1. Northern Ireland monthly milk production

Source: DAERA

Figure 1 shows a bar chart showing Northern Ireland monthly milk production for 2024, 2025 and 2026 compared with the five-year average.

Despite intermittent dry spells, weather conditions over the summer were broadly favourable for grass growth, with rainfall and good sunshine levels supporting above average forage production. This suggests that favourable grazing conditions outweighed the impact of lower milk prices, underpinning production through the summer months.

Figure 2. Average farmgate milk price of NI and GB

Source. AHDB, DAERA

Figure 2 shows a line chart comparing average farmgate milk prices in Northern Ireland (NI) and Great Britain (GB) from January 2021 to July 2026 with the five-year average.

The Northern Ireland average farmgate price has seen more volatility than the GB price meaning NI farmers experienced greater exposure to dairy market volatility, benefiting from stronger price rises during market peaks but also facing steeper declines when markets weakened.

Despite lower milk prices and tighter margins, Northern Ireland milk production has remained robust, supported by favourable grass-growing and forage conditions. This has helped maintain output levels, contrasting with regions where weather-related challenges have placed greater pressure on production.

As Northern Ireland represents a significant proportion of UK milk production, trends in local supply can influence the wider dairy market. However, with milk availability remaining relatively strong and farmgate prices softening, pressure on producer margins is beginning to increase.

Looking ahead, weaker wholesale dairy markets, including subdued cheddar returns and lower milk prices, may shift farmer focus towards efficiency and cost control rather than maximising production. In addition, strong beef prices could encourage increased culling, potentially limiting milk supply growth later in the season.

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