Tractor market hits 25-year low as confidence wanes: Grain market daily

• Nov-25 UK feed wheat futures rose £1.05/t (0.6%) yesterday, closing at £178.25/t. The May-26 contract gained £0.90/t (0.5%) to close at £190.85/t
• UK wheat futures tracked European gains. Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) were up 0.2%, helped by a weaker euro which dropped to €1 = $1.1595 yesterday, its lowest in nearly a month, as the US dollar strengthened. However, weak export demand and harvest pressure capped further price rises. Meanwhile, Chicago wheat futures (Dec-25) fell 1.3%
• Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) rose €8.25/t to €487.75/t, supported by technical buying and a stronger vegetable oil complex. Nov-25 Winnipeg canola and Dec-25 Chicago soyabean oil futures rose 4.0% and 2.7% respectively. However, upside support remains limited due to expectations of a larger global oilseed crop this season

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Last week, AHDB published analysis on UK agricultural tractor registrations. It highlights a significant decline, with registrations falling to their lowest level in over two decades.

Challenging conditions weigh on UK tractor sales in 2025

The tractor market has continued to struggle into 2025, following a difficult year for farm finances in 2024.

In the first quarter of 2025 (Jan–Mar), UK agricultural tractor registrations (>50hp) fell by 23% compared to the same period in 2024. A total of 2,228 units were registered between January and March 2025, down from 2,891 a year earlier. By June 2025, the rolling 12-month total of tractor registrations stood at 9,228 units, the lowest figure recorded since 1998.

The decline reflects market conditions, including weaker commodity prices, adverse weather during 2024, high input costs, and political and economic uncertainty affecting farmer confidence.

Shifting investment patterns

Despite the sharp drop in unit numbers, there is a continued trend towards larger and more powerful machines. The average horsepower of agricultural tractors registered during 2024 rose to 179.7hp, up from 173.8hp in 2023 and continues a long-term upward trajectory.

However, the latest figures for 2025 show a different picture. The sales of larger horsepower tractors dropped by 38%, and average horsepower fell to 173.8hp.

Regional pressures deepen in early 2025

Data for the first half of 2025 (Jan–Jun) indicates that regional pressures have intensified.

Yorkshire & Humberside (-40%), the West Midlands (-32%), and the East Midlands (-31%) recorded the steepest year-on-year declines, highlighting a continued reluctance to invest in machinery, even across some of the key production regions, when compared to the first half of 2024.

Summary

Overall, tractor registrations across the UK fell by 17.2% during the first half of 2025, underlining ongoing caution and restrained capital investment throughout the sector.

Future tractor demand will largely depend on improvements in farm profitability and renewed confidence in investment across the agricultural sector. 

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