UK crop conditions drop significantly: Grain Market Daily

• Nov-25 UK feed wheat futures fell £1.15/t (-0.6%) yesterday to close at £178.55/t, a new contract low. Domestic feed wheat futures Nov-25 saw low trading volumes and fell yesterday despite a slight firming of the global wheat market
• Meanwhile, Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) gained 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. Chicago wheat futures are attempting a price correction after dropping on Tuesday this week, which is partly supported by the decrease in US winter wheat crop conditions
• Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures fell €7.50/t (-1.6%) to €477.75/t. Meanwhile, Winnipeg canola future Nov-25 rose by 0.8% at yesterday’s close
• German farm cooperatives have forecast that the 2025 winter rapeseed crop will increase by 5.6% compared to last year to 3.82 Mt. However, this is below the 3.97 Mt forecast last month (LSEG)

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The latest AHDB crop development report shows that the condition of UK crops is much worsened from April.

The very dry spring this year is likely to have caused damage to many crops. Indeed, winter crop condition ratings have dropped notably from the end of April, while spring cereal ratings are lower than a year ago.

The proportion of winter wheat and barley rated as good or excellent is now much lower than this time last year. The good and excellent rating means crops have ‘normal’ or ‘above normal’ yield prospects.

However, please note that while the information in the current report was captured up to Monday 26 May 2025 for AHDB by RSK ADAS Ltd, the impact of the recent rainfall will not be fully captured in this report.

Winter wheat

In terms of winter wheat, 36% of the crop is currently rated as being in good or excellent condition. This is a significant deterioration from 60% at the end of April and 55% at this time last year and is only slightly above the 31% recorded in late May 2020.

Nitrogen uptake has been suppressed by the dry conditions, and growers need to decide whether to apply more nitrogen to milling wheat. The combination of deterioration in winter wheat crop conditions in the UK and higher nitrogen prices than last year could hinder the production of milling-quality wheat. At the same time, milling wheat premiums for the new crop are lower than those for the 2024 crop at this point last year.

Winter barley

An estimated 48% of winter barley crops are in good to excellent condition at the end of May, now well below last month’s 68% and 61% at this point last year. However, it remains above the 25% recorded in May 2020.

Winter oilseed rape

The winter oilseed rape (WOSR) crop prospects have worsened overall since April when 59% of WOSR was in a good to excellent condition to 52% at the end of May. This is still slightly above the 49% seen at this point last year, but below the levels seen in May 2022 (70%) and May 2023 (66%).

Winter Oats

Over the past month the proportion of winter oats in good to excellent condition has dropped from 72% to 52%. This rating is level with this point last year, after being well above in March and April. However, 9% of crops are rated as in poor or very poor condition as of late May 2025, compared to 21% at this point last year.

Spring cereals

After a promising start with rapid spring drilling, dry weather conditions have affected the condition of spring wheat, barley and oats. Currently, the proportion of crops in good to excellent condition in May is lower than it has been in the last three years.

Where next?

Despite concerns about crop conditions, UK feed wheat futures Nov-2025 are generally trending downwards in line with the global trend. Additionally, the latest UK cereal supply and demand estimates for 2024/25 from AHDB show an increase imported wheat and, consequently, higher domestic carry-out stock levels. This puts pressure on the domestic futures market.

Market participants are paying close attention to weather conditions over the next few weeks, as these could have a significant impact on the yield potential of the crops.

Our next crop development report is planned for 27 June and will provide an update on the conditions of winter and spring crops.

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