What’s driving global wheat markets? Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (May-25) rose slightly yesterday, up £0.15/t from Tuesday’s close, to end the session at £174.60/t. The new crop contract (Nov-25) closed at £189.35/t, up £1.45/t over the same period.
• UK wheat futures followed Chicago prices up yesterday due to news of potential tariff relief for certain goods moving into the US, read more on this below. Paris milling wheat prices, however, were pressured yesterday due to a strengthening euro.
• May-25 Paris rapeseed futures fell €11.50/t yesterday, closing at €499.50/t. The Nov-25 contract fell €4.75/t yesterday, ending the session at €481.50/t.
• Pressure for EU rapeseed markets came from a stronger euro, as well as continued bearish sentiment in crude oil markets and the wider vegetable oil complex.

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Since mid-February, both old and new crop global wheat prices have generally trended downwards, filtering through to our domestic grain market. The key drivers of this have been concern over the implementation of tariffs by the US, and improved conditions across key growing regions. So, what’s the latest update? And what are the main watchpoints over the coming weeks?

US trade dispute

While EU wheat prices fell yesterday, Chicago and UK prices ended the session up slightly from Tuesday’s close. This was due to news that there would be some exemptions to the tariffs imposed on imports of certain Canadian and Mexican goods into the US. For now, the tariff relief has only been announced for certain automakers for a month-long period, though President Trump is reportedly open to discussions over exemptions for other goods (LSEG).

Meanwhile, China has retaliated against the US tariff changes by announcing 10% and 15% increases to import duties on $21 billion worth of American agricultural goods. As a result of this trade dispute, it is expected that China will look to source more agricultural products from South America, Australia and Europe. This could potentially alter global trade flows and is something to watch out for.

Improved weather conditions

Conditions across key wheat-growing regions in the Northern Hemisphere have improved as of late, lessening concerns in the US and Russia specifically.

This week in France, a mild, sunny spell has been favourable for crops but concerns over the impact of heavy rains over the last few months remain. Soils in the country reportedly remain waterlogged, and as a result, it is expected that, certain areas of wheat will need to be re-planted.

Favourable rain in Argentina last week favoured production in the central region of the country, improving soil moisture and benefitting the maize crop. Harvest has now begun, with progress as of late last week at 5.4% complete, compared to an average of 1.7% at this point in the season. However, yields so far are averaging below what had been expected earlier in the year.

Summary

Conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, as we approach a key development phase for the 2025 crops, and weather in South America remain key factors in wheat markets. Over the next few days, any updates on US tariff relief or further escalation of trade disputes could have significant sway on global wheat prices.

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