What’s driving grain prices this week? Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) closed at £175.95/t yesterday, down £3.00/t from Monday’s close. The May-26 contract fell £2.60/t over the same period, ending the session at £187.95/t
• Domestic wheat futures followed global grain markets down yesterday, read more on this below
• Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures closed yesterday at €486.00/t, down €0.50/t over the session. The May-26 contract was down €2.00/t, to close at €490.75/t
• European rapeseed futures followed US soyabeans down yesterday, on the back of an improved US weather outlook, and expectations of weak Chinese demand later this year (LSEG)

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Despite some support at the beginning of the week on the back of the new tariff deal made between the USA and the EU and a decline in US crop conditions, global grain markets were under pressure again yesterday.

Key factors driving this downward pressure are forecasts of improved weather across the US Midwest, and steady global export demand.

However, potential support from concerns over Ukrainian supplies, and variable weather conditions across Europe remain a watchpoint.

US crop update

On Monday, the USDA released its latest crop progress report, rating 73% of the country’s maize crop in good or excellent condition.

This was down from 74% a week earlier, but up from 68% at the same point last season.

With 76% of the crop in it’s ‘silking’ phase as of 27 July, the crop is particularly sensitive to moisture and temperature stress.

For spring wheat, 49% of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition, compared to 52% a week earlier, and 74% at this time last year.

Harvesting of spring wheat has now started in Washington, South Dakota and Idaho, and initial results over the coming days will be something to watch.

Over the next seven days, rain showers are forecast across the Midwest regions which could benefit the country’s maize crop development but could hinder harvest progression in some wheat growing areas.

Steady exports

Lacklustre global demand as of late continues to underpin global grain prices.

The EU Commission released data yesterday showing that EU soft wheat exports since the start of this season totalled 803.3 Kt.

This is down 64% on the same period last season. Barley exports totalled 773.6 Kt, down 16% compared to the same point in 2024/25.

Summary

Over the coming weeks, focus will largely remain on weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere as harvest progresses and maize crops continue to develop.

Over the next couple of months, focus will then turn to Southern Hemisphere wheat crops, offering a clearer look at global grain supplies for the 2025/26 season.

Of course, any updates on trade flows will likely also influence prices both short and long term.

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