When to pay more (or less) attention to markets: Grain market daily

• UK feed wheat futures were little changed from Friday’s close at the end of trading yesterday amid mixed trends in global grain prices. The UK futures May-25 contract lost £0.35/t to settle at £189.30/t, while the Nov-25 contract gained £0.15/t to settle at £196.10/t.
• Paris milling wheat futures rose on the signs of slowing Russian exports and a new tender by Algeria. However, Chicago wheat futures fell as snow cover is expected to offer protection to wheat crops from forecast low temperatures. Expectations for global and US wheat stocks to be little changed in tonight’s USDA report (out 5pm) and selling by speculative traders were also factors.
• May-25 Paris rapeseed futures closed at €516.50/t, unchanged from Friday’s close in euro terms. The Nov-25 contract gained €1.00/t to settle at €490.50/t. There were gains in Winnipeg canola and Malaysian palm oil futures, but Chicago soyabeans futures were little changed due to ongoing trade worries.
• This morning, the French Ag Ministry estimated the country’s 2025 winter rapeseed area at 1.27 Mha, down from the 1.34 Mha forecast in December. This is now 4% below 2024 but still 6% above the five-year average. The soft wheat area is now pegged at 4.57 Mha, up from 4.51 Mha in December and +10% on 2024.

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Following your feedback, the latest improvements to our long-standing Arable market report (now running for nearly 19 years) launched yesterday.

The latest changes include:

• Adding new price analysis to help you assess when it may be important to pay more (or less) attention to markets - see below.
• Market drivers has replaced the separate global and UK market sections for grains, and the global and rapeseed market sections for oilseeds. While global events and data set the price trends that we follow, we’re now focusing from the start on what this means for us in the UK.
• This theme continues with the addition of new sections on Delivered prices. While we’ve always included this information, splitting it out gives greater focus to the delivered prices, which in turn greatly influence ex-farm values.
• Under the new heading Extra information we’ll showcase UK data, such as usage or trade statistics, and important prices, such as those for fertiliser or straw. We’ll also include links to AHDB analysis of agricultural policy, and key economic data.

How to use our price analysis

In place of our bullish/bearish dials, we now have price charts, like the one below, showing UK feed wheat futures and Paris rapeseed futures over the past six months. On these charts we show some key aspects of ‘technical analysis’, including a rolling average price, support/resistance levels and a Relative strength index (RSI). This type of analysis can suggest that a change in the price trend may be coming or that the current trend in prices is a particularly strong one.

UK feed wheat futures (May-25)

So, together with wider market insights, including what’s coming next e.g. data, key crop growth stages or even events such as elections, the analysis can help to highlight when to pay closer attention to markets. This could mean checking the futures market more often, in addition to reading Grain market daily and contacting your preferred grain merchants or traders more frequently. Some indicators to look for include:

• When the daily price moves through the 20-day rolling average,
• Daily prices starting to ‘test’ or ‘cross’ support/resistance lines
• An RSI nearing or reaching the thresholds known as ‘overbought’ or ‘oversold’

However, the analysis can also help to highlight when markets are more settled and there’s less on the horizon. At these points, it may be possible to dial back the market focus and just ‘check in’. This could include when daily prices are held between support and resistance lines or held around the 20-day rolling average, or when the RSI is drifting around 50.

As always, events in the wider market and world can override what any indicator or analysis suggests. So even when all the indicators show less attention is needed, don’t switch off completely. 

You can find out much more information on the analysis, how we chose the parameters and how to use it on a dedicated webpage here.

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