Oilseeds market outlook

February 2025

Key points

• After UK rapeseed production fell to a 41-year low in 2024, we expect imports of rapeseed to remain firm into 2025
• UK rapeseed production looks set to fall again in 2025, unless yields are notably above average
• Limited supply both globally and in the domestic market has supported rapeseed prices over the past year
• Uncertain outlook for rapeseed prices in 2025

Production

Oilseed rape (OSR) production decreased by 32% to 824 thousand tonnes (Kt) in 2024, driven by decreases in area and yield (Defra).

Unfortunately, pest pressure and extreme weather compounded the impact of lower prices at planting and disappointing yields in previous years. The OSR area in 2024 was a little over 293 thousand hectares (Kha), a historic low level and down by 25% from 2023. UK yields averaged 2.8 t/ha for 2024, down by 9.7% on the year (Defra). As a result, 2024 OSR production in the UK was 823.6 Kt, the lowest level since 1983.

The AHDB Early Bird Survey (EBS) pegged the UK OSR area at 244 Kha for harvest 2025, down by 17% year-on-year and the smallest in 42 years. Markedly lower areas of OSR are expected in all areas of England, with the sharpest falls estimated for the North West (-47%), South East (-25%) and Yorkshire and The Humber (-24%). The Eastern region records the smallest fall in the area of OSR (-9%), followed by the East Midlands (-10%). A sharp (-25%) fall is also recorded for Scotland to an estimated 27 Kha.

Based on this intended planted area, and using  the low, average and high yields of the past five years, UK OSR production in 2025 could range from 643 Kt to 912 Kt. This suggests that OSR production could fall again in 2025, unless yields are notably above average. Therefore, the UK will continue to increase its reliance on imported oilseeds.

AHDB’s first report on the condition of GB winter crops for harvest 2025 showed winter oilseed rape (WOSR) in a much stronger condition than winter wheat, barley or oats.

As of 25 November 2024, 73% of WOSR across GB was rated as being in good or excellent condition. However, winter weather and pigeons have again been challenging in some areas and we will need to monitor crop potential.

With your help, AHDB’s 2025 Planting and Variety Survey will give further insight into the area for harvest – the survey opens on 7 April 2025.

From July to December 2024, the UK imported 490 Kt of rapeseed, up by 6% from the same period in 2023. Over 55% of that has been from EU origins, due to the seasonality of harvests and supplies coming online.

We expect the domestic requirement for rapeseed imports will continue to be firm in the second half of this marketing year (2024/25) due to the smaller domestic crop in 2024. It is expected that total imports in the 2024/25 season will be 875 Kt, higher than last year’s level of 743 Kt.

Stratégie Grains forecasts 2025 EU rapeseed production at 19.0 million tonnes (Mt), 13% higher than the 2024/25 (current) season. The increase is attributed to good weather and more land being used for planting.

LSEG forecasts 2025/26 Ukraine rapeseed production at 3.2 Mt, compared to 3.75 Mt in 2024/25 amid weather concerns. Warm and dry weather conditions over the autumn and winter have reduced soil moisture levels to a six-year low.

After a positive start in July 2024, EU+UK rapeseed crushing subsequently decreased and reached the lowest for the last four years in December (1.54 Mt).

Seasonally, from January, EU+UK rapeseed crushing usually decreases due to lower supply on the market. In the 2024/25 season, reduced rapeseed production in the EU and Ukraine will additionally limit supply in the second half of the marketing year.

On the continent and in the UK, it is anticipated that rapeseed crushing will slow in the second half of the year due to this limited supply. As a result of lower rapeseed crushing, supplies of rapeseed oil and meal will also be lower.

The levels of crushing may improve in the second half of 2025 if EU production increases as forecast, though poorer prospects for Ukraine may limit imports and so crushing.

The UK’s demand for OSR is forecast to decrease from 1.95 Mt in 2023/24 to 1.71 Mt in 2024/25 (USDA).

What could the outlook mean for UK prices?

Limited supply both globally and in the domestic market has supported rapeseed prices over the past year.

From January 2024 to January 2025, we saw an upward movement in rapeseed prices (spot, delivered into Erith) by over 23%. The supply and demand balance for rapeseed is expected to remain tight for the rest of this marketing year. However, heavy forecasted Brazilian soya bean supplies could limit price gains in the medium and long term.

In the short term, prices still have upside potential, due to lower palm oil production in the current season and the resulting historical price premium over other vegetable oils. In addition, global sunflower oil production in 2024/25 is forecast to be 9.1% lower than in the 2023/24 season. Global sunflower oil ending stocks for the 2024/25 season are forecast to be the lowest in four years (USDA WASDE February 2025). However, potential US import tariffs could keep the market in an unpredictable environment.

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