Pork market outlook

October 2026

• UK pig meat production is forecast to fall by 3.7% in 2027 to around 979,000 tonnes, broadly level with 2025. The 2026 backlog is not expected to repeat, so clean pig kill and carcase weights will both ease
• The UK female breeding herd is forecast to contract by 0.9% to 328,000 head by June 2027. Negative producer margins are expected to prompt producers to cut sow numbers
• Exports are forecast to fall by 12% in 2027 as production tightens, but volumes are expected to remain above 2025 levels. African swine fever in Europe remains a key risk to trade. Imports are forecast to grow by 2% in 2027 as the domestic supply becomes tighter
• Pig meat demand is forecast to decline by 2% in 2026, with volumes falling a further 1% in 2027. Consumer confidence is expected to remain subdued as rising food and energy costs continue to pressure household budgets
• Pig prices are expected to firm gradually in 2027 as domestic supply tightens. However, the wide EU price discount is likely to limit gains, and rising input costs may mean margins see little benefit

So far, 2026 has been a year of plentiful production for the UK pig industry, but a difficult one for many producers.

Defra figures show UK pig meat production has risen by 4.9% year-on-year (YoY) to 669,800 tonnes for January to August. This was driven by both higher clean pig kill, up by 2.9% YoY to 70.3 million head, and heavier carcase weights. The backlog of pigs that was expected to clear early at the start of the year instead persisted well into the summer.

How this has been felt depends largely on where a business sits in the supply chain. Ample availability has kept the market well supplied, but producers have felt the impacts. GB pig prices have remained under sustained pressure, with the EU-spec SPP at 180.25p/kg in the week ending 26 September, 25.93p/kg below the same point last year.

The estimated cost of production has also increased, with net margins being negative since the first quarter (Q1). Margins per slaughter pig in the second quarter (Q2) was estimated at -£20.44.

On trade, the volume of UK pig meat exported so far in 2026 has grown strongly, up 9.6% YoY at 199,600 tonnes (January to July). This was driven by stronger shipments to Ireland and Japan. Imports fell by 5.3% to 412,000 tonnes over the same period, despite the gap between UK and EU reference pig prices averaging 50.3p/kg from January to June, up from 36.7p/kg a year earlier.

While production has grown, stable facings data suggests retailers have continued to champion British pork through 2026.

Retail demand has eased slightly this year, with total GB retail pig meat volumes down 1% in the 52 weeks to 6 September 2026. Processed pork has continued to struggle as shoppers focus on health and move away from more processed food. Primary cuts, however, have performed well. Pork mince stands out, with volumes up 33.5% YoY as consumers trade down from pricier proteins.

Looking ahead, the pace at which supply adjusts will be critical. Policy uncertainty, particularly around flexi-farrowing legislation, continues to weigh on investment decisions. Global politics also remains unstable, with the conflict in the Middle East pushing up input costs including energy, feed and fertiliser. However, while average retail prices have risen, pig meat has remained cheaper than beef and lamb, giving it a comparative advantage as consumers seek more affordable protein. Sector profitability and investment decisions will be a key watchpoint going forwards.

We forecast full-year UK pig meat production for 2026 at approximately 1.02 million tonnes, up 4.0% on 2025. Clean pig kill is forecast to rise by 2.7% to 10.71 million head, with carcase weights averaging 92.0kg. The backlog of pigs from the end of 2025 took longer to clear than expected. Some processors served notice on contracts early in the year, likely in response to oversupply. Weights have since normalised, with Q3 broadly level YoY, meaning growth in the second half of 2026 is being supported by higher slaughter numbers.

For 2027, we forecast production to fall by 3.7% YoY to approximately 979,100 tonnes, driven by lower clean pig kill, as the 2026 backlog is not expected to be repeated. Carcase weights are also forecast to ease by 0.8% to 91.2kg. Carcase weights are also forecast to ease by 0.8% to 91.2kg.

The sharpest decline is expected in Q1, with production down 9.3% YoY. This largely reflects the comparison with backlog-inflated carcase weights in Q1 2026. Easter also falls in March rather than April, leaving two fewer working days in Q1.

Slaughter capacity towards the end of 2026 is a key watchpoint, with industry reports suggesting around 10,000 pigs a week may be without slaughter space. This is around 0.4% of the 2.76 million head forecast for Q4. However, it falls in the busiest quarter of the year, as processors meet Christmas demand and clear pigs ahead of lost kill days over the festive break.

Whatever happens to these pigs adds pressure. Pigs held on farm add cost and welfare pressure for the producers affected. If the gap between available pigs and processing capacity widens, this could create a renewed backlog into early 2027, which our Q1 forecast does not assume. Alternatively, pigs sold on the spot market could provide processors with cheaper supply, which could weigh on wider market prices.

Overall, production in 2027 is forecast to be broadly level with 2025, as carcase weights supported by improved genetics, offset slightly lower kill.

Figure 1. Actual and forecast UK pig meat production

Source: Defra actuals, AHDB forecasts

Percentage labels above each bar show the change compared with the same quarter of the previous year. Percentages in the text boxes show the change in the annual total compared with the previous year.

We forecast clean pig kill at approximately 10.71 million head in 2026, up 2.7% YoY. Growth has been consistent, ranging from +2.3% in Q1 to +3.4% in Q3. A weaker market has kept more pigs moving through the system as the backlog from the end of 2025 cleared. Q3 growth partly reflects comparison with 2025, when prolonged hot weather and compound feed quality issues constrained throughput.

For 2027, we forecast clean pig kill to fall by 3.0% to approximately 10.39 million head as the number of pigs coming through the system falls, as outlined in the breeding herd section below.

The decline is weighted to the first half of the year, with Q1 kill forecast to fall by 7.6%. An earlier Easter accounts for part of this, with the underlying decline closer to 4.6%. Across the first half of the year, where the Easter effect cancels out, kill is forecast to fall by 4.1%.

Despite the decline, 2027 kill is forecast to be broadly in line with 2025, largely reversing the increase seen in 2026.

Figure 2. Actual and forecast UK clean pig slaughter

Source: Defra actuals, AHDB forecasts

Percentage labels above each bar show the change compared with the same quarter of the previous year. Percentages in the text boxes show the change in the annual total compared with the previous year.

We estimate the UK female breeding sow herd stood at approximately 331,000 head in June 2026, up 1.5% YoY. Producer margins were broadly favourable through much of 2025, encouraging some producers to hold or expand sow numbers, and this is now reflected in the June count.

We have also revised our June 2025 estimate up to 326,000 head, from 320,000 in our February outlook, following updated data from our Electronic Medicines Book (eMB). This is a decline of just 0.3% on 2024, rather than the 2.1% previously assumed. We base our estimates on eMB because submitting sow numbers alongside quarterly antibiotic usage records is a requirement of farm assurance schemes such as Red Tractor, so the dataset covers around 95% of the UK industry.

Defra's June 2026 survey results for England show a 3.4% increase in the female breeding herd. This rise should be read with some caution, as it follows a 5.3% decline reported for June 2025. That fall was considerably larger than other data sources, including eMB, indicated at the time. Part of this year's increase is therefore likely to reflect a recovery from a lower starting point, rather than growth of that scale in the herd itself.

Productivity has also played a significant role. We estimate that pigs per sow per year have increased by 4% since 2024, as genetic improvements in recent years have lifted litter sizes and piglet survival, so each sow now produces more pigs for slaughter. Combined with a larger herd than previously estimated, this helps explain why slaughter has run ahead of expectations and has contributed significantly to the current oversupply.

Looking ahead, we forecast the sow herd to contract by 0.9% to 328,000 head by June 2027, before falling a further 1.5% to 323,000 head by June 2028. Negative net margins through 2026 are expected to prompt some producers to reduce sow numbers, with the effect on production feeding through over the following year. The move to flexi-farrowing systems will likely compound this. Larger pen footprints and difficulties securing planning permission for new buildings, mean that retrofitting existing buildings may be the only option, leading to reduced stocking rates.

We expect the national sow herd to stabilise at around 323,000 head in 2029, as tighter supply supports prices and margins. This would leave the herd around 20% smaller than in 2020.

Figure 3. UK breeding sow numbers as of 1 June each year, with annual changes

Source: Defra actuals, AHDB estimates and forecasts

Percentage labels above each bar show the change in the annual total compared with the previous year.

We forecast UK pig meat exports to rise by 16% in 2026, with growth concentrated in the first half, driven by both Ireland and Japan. Heavy domestic supply and weaker UK pig prices made UK product more competitive overseas and pushed processors to find outlets for surplus pigs. Growth is expected to slow down in the second half as the backlog has been cleared and the market readjusts.

For 2027, we forecast exports to fall by 12% compared to 2026 as domestic production and exportable surplus falls. The decline is steepest in the first half of 2027, when compared against this year's backlog-driven surge. Even so, exports are forecast to remain 2.5% above 2025 levels, suggesting some gains will be retained.

African Swine Fever (ASF) remains a key risk across Europe. Outbreaks can restrict third-country exports, increase EU supply and weigh on prices and UK competitiveness. An outbreak in the UK would be felt far more acutely, likely closing key export markets. We have commissioned an economic impact assessment of a potential ASF outbreak in Great Britain.

China remains a watchpoint, with pork imports down so far in 2026 as it continues to prioritise self-sufficiency. However, the UK is expected to be minimally affected. A key proportion of UK exports are fifth quarter and speciality products, and feedback from AHDB’s recent trade visit to China suggest demand for these will not be met by rising Chinese production. The greater risk is to countries exporting prime cuts into South East Asia, where increased Chinese output is more likely to compete.

Danish reforms may present a longer-term opportunity. Proposed environmental and welfare changes, from a new left-leaning Government, could constrain Danish output. This could leave gaps in markets Denmark currently supplies, which UK exporters could fill.

We forecast UK pig meat imports to fall by 3% in 2026, against ample domestic supply and support for British pork.

For 2027, we forecast imports to grow by around 2% against the 2026 forecast. With domestic supply tighter, the European price discount is likely to draw in more imported product. However, imports are expected to remain below 2025 levels, as lower exports keep more UK product on the domestic market.

Further ASF outbreaks are the main upside risk, as lower European prices would make imports more competitive. Over the longer term, lower Danish output could reduce import availability, as Denmark is the UK's largest supplier, accounting for around 21% of import volumes.

Figure 4. Actual and forecast trends in UK pig meat supplies

Source: Defra, HMRC, AHDB estimates

CWE = carcase weight equivalent

The bar chart in Figure 4 shows the year-on-year tonnage change in key metrics for the UK pig meat market between 2025 and 2027. Calculations based on Defra's actual data are shown for 2025 in light blue, AHDB estimates for 2026 are shown in dark blue, and forecasts for 2027 are shown in green.

Consumption 

In the year to date, spend on pig meat in retail declined by 1.1%¹, while out-of-home saw a decline of 2.7%² compared with the same period in 2025.

While average prices increased across both channels during this period, pig meat remained cheaper than both beef and lamb. This suggests that value for money is not determined by price alone and that pig meat's lower price point has not been enough to offset other consumer priorities.

Our revised outlook forecasts pig meat demand to decline by 2% year-on-year in 2026.

For more details on recent trends on pig meat and cut specifics, see our retail and foodservice dashboards.

For 2027, we expect consumer confidence to remain muted. Rising food inflation and energy costs will add pressure to household incomes, as detailed in our economic outlook. Consumers are likely to make careful spending decisions, focusing on getting the best value for money.

Against this backdrop, we forecast for 2027 that total pigmeat volumes sold will reduce by 1% versus 2026.

Figure 5: Actual and forecast volumes of pigmeat sold in UK

Source: AHDB volume estimates for UK based on Worldpanel by Numerator UK retail and OOH data. *2026 and *2027 figures are AHDB estimates

The stacked bar chart shows volumes in 000kg for pigmeat sales in UK split by retail, eating-out, takeaway/delivery and catering. Actual volumes are shown for 2023 through to 2025. AHDB estimated volumes are shown for 2026 and 2027. Over the 5-year period, retail is consistently the largest component. AHDB estimates volumes for 2026 will be -2% in decline versus 2025 and -1% in decline versus 2024. AHDB estimates volumes for 2027 will be -1% in decline versus 2026.

Despite anticipating an overall decline, pig meat performance will be a story of two halves.

In retail, demand for primary cuts is expected to grow, while demand for processed products is expected to continue to decline.

Primary pork is likely to benefit as consumers look for affordable alternatives to beef and a more indulgent option than chicken as seen through much of 2026. This is expected to support demand for products such as mince, steaks and loins.

Primary pork could also benefit from growing interest in high-protein diets. As a naturally high-quality source of protein, it could appeal to both health-conscious consumers as well as the increasing number of users of GLP-1 weight-loss medications when its benefits are communicated effectively.

Processed products, including bacon, sausages and ham, are expected to remain under pressure as consumer concerns about UPFs continue to grow.

To help address this, the market is seeing innovation in nitrate-free products, notably for bacon, which has seen a 3.8% increase in volumes sold year-on-year.

However, they remain a niche product, accounting for just 1.8% of bacon rasher volumes sold³.

As a result, growth in nitrate-free products is unlikely to be sufficient to offset the wider decline in processed pig meat demand. However, the category offers processors an opportunity to broaden their product portfolios and appeal to consumers seeking less processed options.

Seasonal occasions, such as Christmas and Easter, will remain important drivers of demand. Pork roasting joints are seen as a lower-cost alternative to beef and lamb, while still offering something a little more special than chicken. Seasonal favourites such as pigs in blankets, alongside the strong value credentials of gammon, are also expected to provide a boost for processed pig meat products.

Out-of-home demand is expected to remain under pressure for both dine in and takeaways.

Many out-of-home operators are reducing the share of red meat on menus and utilising dishes in which the protein is used as an ingredient rather than the centre piece. This is resulting in lower volumes being purchased.

Pig meat faces an additional challenge due to its heavy reliance on savoury pastries and sandwiches⁴, which are becoming less aligned with consumer needs as more people choose to eat at home to save money and seek healthier meal options.

With ongoing cost-of-living pressures and sustained interest in health trends, pig meat in out-of-home will need to find new opportunities in healthier, value-led meal occasions to remain relevant and drive demand.

However, major sporting events such as the Women’s World Cup during June and July could support pig meat demand.

Alongside the likelihood for another hot and dry summer, these occasions may encourage consumers into the out-of-home market to socialise, driving demand for pork and processed pig meat products in pubs, bars and casual dining outlets.

The pig meat outlook might be further boosted if the industry:

• Continue to promote the health benefits of pig meat, highlighting its naturally high-quality protein content and its role as a source of vitamins B12 and B6, iron and zinc.
• Capitalise on growing interest in high-protein diets by positioning pork as a natural protein choice for active and health-conscious consumers.
• Retain shoppers who may be reducing their consumption of ultra-processed foods by showcasing quick, easy and tasty meal solutions using lean primary pork cuts.
• Communicate how processed pig meat products can still form part of a healthy, balanced diet and do not need to be removed from meal repertoires when enjoyed in moderation.
• Challenge perceptions of pork as a traditional meat by showcasing its use in modern, global cuisines and convenient midweek meals.
• Maximise seasonal opportunities, particularly at Easter and Christmas, by promoting pork roasting joints as a delicious, cost-effective centrepiece option.
• Look to diversify pork's role in out-of-home by increasing its use in healthier, protein-led meal occasions, while promoting its value for money and high-quality protein credentials.
• Engage regularly with consumers to build trust and understanding, highlighting the work UK pig farmers do to support animal welfare, environmental stewardship and the production of high-quality food.

AHDB have a range of marketing activities planned for the year, including the Love Pork campaign. Please visit our marketing pages for more information.

For more insight around consumer demand visit our retail and consumer outlook page.

GB pig prices have been under sustained pressure throughout 2026. The EU-spec SPP fell from 193.4p/kg in early January to 177.97p/kg by mid-July, almost 30p below a year earlier, as the backlog and higher slaughter left the market well supplied. With prices falling faster than cost of production, producer net margins have been negative since Q1.

Prices are likely to remain under pressure for the rest of 2026, with around 10,000 pigs per week reported to be without a slaughter place, adding to supply into Christmas.

In 2027, we expect prices to firm gradually. UK production is forecast to fall, with the sharpest decline in the first half. Continued negative margins are also likely to prompt some herd reductions, tightening supply further into 2028. However, a slight decline in consumption is expected to limit upward price momentum.

However, gains are likely to be limited. The EU discount will continue to cap UK prices, and further ASF outbreaks could widen it. Rising input costs linked to unstable geopolitics may mean any price recovery does little to restore margins.

Sources:

¹Worldpanel by Numerator UK, YTD ending 6 September 2026

²Worldpanel by Numerator UK OOH, YTD ending 6 September 2026

³Worldpanel by Numerator UK, Nitrate free pigmeat volumes, YTD ending 6 September 2026

⁴AHDB estimates based on Worldpanel by Numerator UK OOH, YTD 6 September 2026

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